1 00:00:05,460 --> 00:00:08,594 So today I'll be, as Matthias said, 2 00:00:08,594 --> 00:00:10,208 and you can read the title of the talk, 3 00:00:10,208 --> 00:00:11,729 but I'll be talking about some of the lessons 4 00:00:11,729 --> 00:00:14,490 that we're beginning to learn as we've been pursuing 5 00:00:14,490 --> 00:00:16,500 various types of adaptation plantings, 6 00:00:16,500 --> 00:00:18,660 pre-plantings, the climate solution. 7 00:00:18,660 --> 00:00:20,070 This is some of our work that we've been doing 8 00:00:20,070 --> 00:00:22,230 in a university setting, but I really want to acknowledge 9 00:00:22,230 --> 00:00:25,260 many of our co-authors here including Chris Zimmerman, 10 00:00:25,260 --> 00:00:26,820 who's here in the audience. 11 00:00:26,820 --> 00:00:29,760 Half of these co-authors represent practitioners, 12 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:31,710 folks that are working at state agencies, 13 00:00:31,710 --> 00:00:33,270 non-profit agencies. 14 00:00:33,270 --> 00:00:34,350 And so there's really an interesting 15 00:00:34,350 --> 00:00:35,370 and balanced perspective 16 00:00:35,370 --> 00:00:37,594 that we're trying to bring to this work. 17 00:00:37,594 --> 00:00:41,193 So just to dive into things- 18 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:44,393 Great. 19 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:47,940 So we're recognizing that tree planting 20 00:00:47,940 --> 00:00:49,620 is increasingly being proposed 21 00:00:49,620 --> 00:00:52,800 as a climate solution initiative. 22 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:54,981 The Trillion Trees, billion trees initiatives, 23 00:00:54,981 --> 00:00:57,210 and even part of the recent Infrastructure Act, 24 00:00:57,210 --> 00:01:01,800 the Replant Act, titled Repairing the Existing Public Land 25 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,390 by Adding Necessary Trees Act. 26 00:01:03,390 --> 00:01:05,945 So it's appropriately named. 27 00:01:05,945 --> 00:01:08,040 But even as we've scaled 28 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,200 from nationally to more regional emphasis 29 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,900 there's still this regional emphasis and growing attention 30 00:01:12,900 --> 00:01:15,420 on artificial regeneration of what we call tree planting 31 00:01:15,420 --> 00:01:17,490 here as that climate solution. 32 00:01:17,490 --> 00:01:20,340 So there's efforts like the Minnesota Million, 33 00:01:20,340 --> 00:01:22,094 our efforts of potentially planting a million acres 34 00:01:22,094 --> 00:01:23,819 in New York. 35 00:01:23,819 --> 00:01:28,230 TNC's pursuing various frameworks 36 00:01:28,230 --> 00:01:29,850 like the Climate Change Response framework, 37 00:01:29,850 --> 00:01:32,580 which includes tree planting as a means of adapting 38 00:01:32,580 --> 00:01:34,350 or maybe including assisted migration, 39 00:01:34,350 --> 00:01:37,440 and as we recognize that species ranges are shifting. 40 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,540 And so even though tree planting is not historically 41 00:01:39,540 --> 00:01:42,060 a huge thing that we pursue in the Northeast, 42 00:01:42,060 --> 00:01:46,770 it's increasingly being used as a potential tool. 43 00:01:46,770 --> 00:01:48,900 And so why is this happening? 44 00:01:48,900 --> 00:01:52,830 There's a potential need, and tree planting 45 00:01:52,830 --> 00:01:55,380 has been identified as a solution to get 46 00:01:55,380 --> 00:01:57,570 at a couple different problems that folks are identifying. 47 00:01:57,570 --> 00:02:00,480 So a hot button issue with the potential role 48 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,150 of reforestation of many of our forest plans 49 00:02:03,150 --> 00:02:08,150 that are either understocked or could improve that stocking 50 00:02:08,327 --> 00:02:10,590 in terms of the carbon mitigation potential 51 00:02:10,590 --> 00:02:12,210 for tree planting. 52 00:02:12,210 --> 00:02:15,131 Potential opportunity includes many, many millions 53 00:02:15,131 --> 00:02:18,270 of tons of carbon sequestered annually, 54 00:02:18,270 --> 00:02:20,190 many, many millions of acres and potentially 55 00:02:20,190 --> 00:02:22,020 many, many billions of trees. 56 00:02:22,020 --> 00:02:24,960 Again, this opportunity is in quotes, 57 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:28,380 as there's a little bit of wiggle room as we think 58 00:02:28,380 --> 00:02:32,100 about potential reforestation in this region. 59 00:02:32,100 --> 00:02:34,863 We also recognize that species' ranges are changing, 60 00:02:34,863 --> 00:02:38,610 and climate change is exceedingly outpacing the pace 61 00:02:38,610 --> 00:02:40,650 of natural dispersal rates. 62 00:02:40,650 --> 00:02:42,690 And the Northeast is a potential hotbed 63 00:02:42,690 --> 00:02:46,020 for new and novel species coming into this region. 64 00:02:46,020 --> 00:02:49,500 And so to be able to match those rates of climate change, 65 00:02:49,500 --> 00:02:50,757 the potential need for tree planting 66 00:02:50,757 --> 00:02:53,550 and the movement of new species or seed lots 67 00:02:53,550 --> 00:02:56,670 into this region may be another avenue for tree planting. 68 00:02:56,670 --> 00:02:58,580 And then lastly, we recognize that the Northeast 69 00:02:58,580 --> 00:03:00,120 is really the heavyweight champion 70 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,640 of invasive pests and pathogens. 71 00:03:02,640 --> 00:03:06,400 And so as we potentially lose some species--ash, hemlock-- 72 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,630 other species are degraded under abiotic stress. 73 00:03:09,630 --> 00:03:12,210 Can we functionally replace them or can we adapt 74 00:03:12,210 --> 00:03:15,750 or even restore these species that are being degraded? 75 00:03:15,750 --> 00:03:18,450 So as I mentioned, tree planting is not a huge part 76 00:03:18,450 --> 00:03:21,330 of our northeastern forestry culture. 77 00:03:21,330 --> 00:03:23,190 It's not something that we oftentimes are incorporating 78 00:03:23,190 --> 00:03:24,870 into our forest management plans. 79 00:03:24,870 --> 00:03:26,580 We won't go into tremendous detail here, 80 00:03:26,580 --> 00:03:27,630 but the takeaway- 81 00:03:27,630 --> 00:03:31,080 so this is nursed reproduction in the bars by state, 82 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:35,550 and then area reforested that's being replanted. 83 00:03:35,550 --> 00:03:38,610 This is just based off of FIA measurements. 84 00:03:38,610 --> 00:03:41,130 Really the takeaways, many of our New England states 85 00:03:41,130 --> 00:03:43,470 really aren't planting all that much. 86 00:03:43,470 --> 00:03:45,060 This is from a couple years ago. 87 00:03:45,060 --> 00:03:46,560 Maybe the exception here being Maine, 88 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,220 which is bit more even-age sub-cultural systems, 89 00:03:50,220 --> 00:03:53,910 and they're purchasing a lot of their spruce 90 00:03:53,910 --> 00:03:58,910 from Canadian provinces, not growing their own these days. 91 00:03:59,085 --> 00:04:03,781 Despite a lack of planting, there's increase in emphasis 92 00:04:03,781 --> 00:04:06,780 and potentially an increase in number of projects. 93 00:04:06,780 --> 00:04:09,330 The recent survey that we did of New England 94 00:04:09,330 --> 00:04:11,910 and northeastern foresters that are interested 95 00:04:11,910 --> 00:04:13,489 in pursuing adaptation, 96 00:04:13,489 --> 00:04:17,760 the overwhelming response is that there's an increase 97 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,160 in tree planting projects into the future. 98 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,590 And rather than just maintaining those current conditions, 99 00:04:22,590 --> 00:04:25,123 really focusing on diversifying conditions, 100 00:04:25,123 --> 00:04:30,123 whether this is in response to species range changes 101 00:04:32,070 --> 00:04:34,170 or just promoting a more resilient system. 102 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,230 And so the questions that we're really trying 103 00:04:37,230 --> 00:04:40,230 to get at today is, does current nursery capacity 104 00:04:40,230 --> 00:04:42,270 reflect the growing need to be able 105 00:04:42,270 --> 00:04:46,897 to support a potential diverse need for tree planting? 106 00:04:46,897 --> 00:04:51,060 So just a quick primer on forest nurseries, 107 00:04:51,060 --> 00:04:52,980 and this is really more of a federal perspective, 108 00:04:52,980 --> 00:04:54,810 but it really highlights some of the changes 109 00:04:54,810 --> 00:04:58,260 that we've seen in how nurseries have operated 110 00:04:58,260 --> 00:05:00,803 over the last decade, or century or so. 111 00:05:00,803 --> 00:05:03,270 Initially developed largely based 112 00:05:03,270 --> 00:05:06,390 on conservation and a restoration response. 113 00:05:06,390 --> 00:05:10,080 Then moving into really the Civilian Conservation Corps 114 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,870 and Jobs Creation program in response 115 00:05:12,870 --> 00:05:13,886 to the Great Depression, 116 00:05:13,886 --> 00:05:18,510 moving into the meat of the century of responding 117 00:05:18,510 --> 00:05:23,510 to the public's demand for timber, growing timber products, 118 00:05:24,810 --> 00:05:27,090 responding to the large, even-age systems 119 00:05:27,090 --> 00:05:28,500 that we've largely focused on. 120 00:05:28,500 --> 00:05:31,350 And then as that response and public demand 121 00:05:31,350 --> 00:05:34,830 for timber declined, really retooling and refocusing 122 00:05:34,830 --> 00:05:38,490 on contemporary mission, largely based 123 00:05:38,490 --> 00:05:42,510 on restoration and conservation, broadly speaking. 124 00:05:42,510 --> 00:05:45,540 But in response to that public decline in timber, 125 00:05:45,540 --> 00:05:50,540 we've oftentimes seen many of the economics have largely 126 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,580 become unwieldy for many nurseries, 127 00:05:53,580 --> 00:05:56,760 and we've seen many nurseries close and shut their doors, 128 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,950 and even from some earlier surveys, 129 00:05:58,950 --> 00:06:00,961 we're starting to see inadequate supplies 130 00:06:00,961 --> 00:06:02,484 and fewer planting choices 131 00:06:02,484 --> 00:06:05,730 for folks that are pursuing tree planting. 132 00:06:05,730 --> 00:06:07,590 Now, just as an anecdote for those nurseries 133 00:06:07,590 --> 00:06:08,790 that are still around, 134 00:06:08,790 --> 00:06:10,326 this is from New Hampshire State Nursery: 135 00:06:10,326 --> 00:06:12,990 they're seeing increases in sales. 136 00:06:12,990 --> 00:06:16,290 Doubling, tripling, maybe not tripling, but 30 to 40% 137 00:06:16,290 --> 00:06:19,890 in increases in sales annually over the last few years. 138 00:06:19,890 --> 00:06:22,650 Anecdotally, they've been selling out of everything, 139 00:06:22,650 --> 00:06:24,570 and they potentially credit this 140 00:06:24,570 --> 00:06:26,520 to more public knowledge of climate change 141 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:30,720 and tree planting as a tool to be able to deal 142 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,840 with some of the impending challenges of global change. 143 00:06:33,840 --> 00:06:36,840 And so from the perspective of a nursery, 144 00:06:36,840 --> 00:06:38,490 say you're the New Hampshire State Nursery, 145 00:06:38,490 --> 00:06:41,130 and you recognize there is this market pressure, 146 00:06:41,130 --> 00:06:45,043 maybe there's potential need for new species, new stock. 147 00:06:45,043 --> 00:06:48,840 Climate is is really driving some of this market. 148 00:06:48,840 --> 00:06:53,460 At what point do you make this speculative investment 149 00:06:53,460 --> 00:06:56,787 into growing those species, increasing that overall volume 150 00:06:56,787 --> 00:06:59,910 and that supply, do you start incorporating 151 00:06:59,910 --> 00:07:03,630 different seed lots and growing different stock sizes? 152 00:07:03,630 --> 00:07:06,420 Seedlings take 3, 5, 10 years to grow. 153 00:07:06,420 --> 00:07:09,000 And so to be able to hit that target down the line 154 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,055 really requires a speculative investment 155 00:07:11,055 --> 00:07:14,070 on the part of the nursery. 156 00:07:14,070 --> 00:07:17,100 Many state nurseries are really tied to their sales, 157 00:07:17,100 --> 00:07:20,550 and if they don't hit those marks, taxpayers, 158 00:07:20,550 --> 00:07:23,520 legislation may need to come in and support that. 159 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:28,520 And that can really put that risk profile or portfolio, 160 00:07:28,710 --> 00:07:30,720 can really be pretty challenging for many nurseries 161 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,093 to build up, make that speculative investment. 162 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:38,190 And so there's, if I haven't emphasized this enough, 163 00:07:38,190 --> 00:07:41,130 there's really a need for diversification 164 00:07:41,130 --> 00:07:43,230 in how our nurseries are able to supply 165 00:07:43,230 --> 00:07:45,960 that growing need for tree planting, particularly leading 166 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,060 into some of that speculative investment. 167 00:07:48,060 --> 00:07:50,160 So some of this work that I'll be talking about right now 168 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,680 is really leading into this inverted triangle, 169 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,139 this supply chain of how the volume of seedlings 170 00:07:56,139 --> 00:07:59,700 may need to increase and diversify our species, 171 00:07:59,700 --> 00:08:02,193 the seed sources, and that stock. 172 00:08:03,090 --> 00:08:04,830 So let's just step through some of this. 173 00:08:04,830 --> 00:08:06,720 This is some stuff, this is some work, 174 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,940 that we've been recently pursuing, 175 00:08:08,940 --> 00:08:11,700 and others have have really highlighted the need 176 00:08:11,700 --> 00:08:14,820 for overall increases in overall production. 177 00:08:14,820 --> 00:08:17,640 Really the main takeaways that I want to give you today 178 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,080 is that most of our tree nurseries 179 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:20,940 are largely focused in the lake states, 180 00:08:20,940 --> 00:08:24,120 in the NRS northeastern region. 181 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,210 As I already mentioned, nurseries have generally been 182 00:08:27,210 --> 00:08:31,260 on the decline, so we've formerly had 11 federal nurseries, 183 00:08:31,260 --> 00:08:32,970 and now there's one. 184 00:08:32,970 --> 00:08:37,110 Many of our production has largely been focused 185 00:08:37,110 --> 00:08:40,890 on conifers, again, largely in the north central states, 186 00:08:40,890 --> 00:08:43,140 think of that being the lake states. 187 00:08:43,140 --> 00:08:46,710 These conifers are for wind breaks, they're Christmas trees, 188 00:08:46,710 --> 00:08:49,620 and many of them are oftentimes for timber purposes, 189 00:08:49,620 --> 00:08:54,603 and relative to, again, the diverse species and those needs. 190 00:08:55,560 --> 00:08:58,980 In addition to the volume that we potentially may need 191 00:08:58,980 --> 00:09:01,170 in terms of the many, many millions or even billions 192 00:09:01,170 --> 00:09:03,270 of seedlings that are potentially required 193 00:09:03,270 --> 00:09:04,860 for future tree planting efforts, 194 00:09:04,860 --> 00:09:06,930 the 10 to 20 million that are being annually 195 00:09:06,930 --> 00:09:11,760 produced really pales in comparison to that need. 196 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,650 Moving down that line is starting to think 197 00:09:13,650 --> 00:09:16,521 about some of the nuances as a forester or a landowner. 198 00:09:16,521 --> 00:09:20,550 If your goals are to promote future climate-adapted species 199 00:09:20,550 --> 00:09:23,130 that may have increases in future habitat, 200 00:09:23,130 --> 00:09:27,390 or maybe your goals are to respond to loss of ash 201 00:09:27,390 --> 00:09:29,400 and maybe functionally replace that species 202 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,830 with another species, or maybe your goals are 203 00:09:31,830 --> 00:09:36,830 to restore some culturally ecologically important species. 204 00:09:37,050 --> 00:09:41,370 When we query, look to nursery inventories 205 00:09:41,370 --> 00:09:42,540 from the last year, 206 00:09:42,540 --> 00:09:44,700 so these are just a handful of target species 207 00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:47,483 that we wanted to understand what that supply looked like. 208 00:09:47,483 --> 00:09:50,520 This is just number of nurseries that sold 209 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,430 and had inventory of a handful of species. 210 00:09:53,430 --> 00:09:57,624 And so the overall trend that I call up to you 211 00:09:57,624 --> 00:10:00,660 is that most of those seedlings are being produced, 212 00:10:00,660 --> 00:10:01,740 again in the Lake States. 213 00:10:01,740 --> 00:10:02,970 I already mentioned that. 214 00:10:02,970 --> 00:10:03,803 But think about that. 215 00:10:03,803 --> 00:10:05,359 You're a forester in the Northeast; 216 00:10:05,359 --> 00:10:09,780 you want to get a batch of seedlings. 217 00:10:09,780 --> 00:10:11,580 Those seedlings then must travel 218 00:10:11,580 --> 00:10:14,369 on a box truck for three to five days. 219 00:10:14,369 --> 00:10:17,280 Potentially, they were lifted, they were dug out 220 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,493 of the ground weeks prior to snow melt and mud season 221 00:10:21,493 --> 00:10:23,160 here in the region. 222 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,857 And so this really leads to stock quality problems 223 00:10:26,857 --> 00:10:29,760 as the seedlings are shipped across the country, 224 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,870 as opposed to having that globally local seed source. 225 00:10:33,870 --> 00:10:36,049 Now, some species are also more readily available. 226 00:10:36,049 --> 00:10:38,340 Northern red oak, white pine, these are some 227 00:10:38,340 --> 00:10:42,030 of the most commonly reproduced seedlings in nurseries. 228 00:10:42,030 --> 00:10:44,955 But other more nuanced species, say bitternut hickory, 229 00:10:44,955 --> 00:10:49,955 or even red spruce, with very, very few choices 230 00:10:50,310 --> 00:10:52,170 in terms of nurseries that are actually 231 00:10:52,170 --> 00:10:55,200 selling these species in the last year. 232 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,380 One, as an anecdote, red spruce was sold 233 00:10:58,380 --> 00:11:01,230 in two nurseries this past year, with an overwhelming number 234 00:11:01,230 --> 00:11:04,050 of 800 seedlings publicly available. 235 00:11:04,050 --> 00:11:07,530 This is enough to reforest an an acre or two, 236 00:11:07,530 --> 00:11:08,363 depending on your goal. 237 00:11:08,363 --> 00:11:11,640 So matching that species to volume 238 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,740 to then moving down the line 239 00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:16,260 as we think about where those seed lots are coming from. 240 00:11:16,260 --> 00:11:18,720 So historically, seed zones have been identified 241 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:23,152 to target locally adapted genotypes 242 00:11:23,152 --> 00:11:25,650 to both the ecosystem as well 243 00:11:25,650 --> 00:11:27,180 as those that fit that climate. 244 00:11:27,180 --> 00:11:29,550 But we recognize that as climate warms, 245 00:11:29,550 --> 00:11:31,470 those seed zones may change. 246 00:11:31,470 --> 00:11:34,620 So we're planting in Montpelier, in the near term, 247 00:11:34,620 --> 00:11:36,222 and under a medium emissions scenario, 248 00:11:36,222 --> 00:11:40,110 this orange highlights that potential seed zone 249 00:11:40,110 --> 00:11:43,290 where we maybe we want to target our seed lots, 250 00:11:43,290 --> 00:11:45,540 and then the far term under a high emissions scenario, 251 00:11:45,540 --> 00:11:47,940 we can see those seed zones move all the way 252 00:11:47,940 --> 00:11:51,510 down to Missouri, parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania. 253 00:11:51,510 --> 00:11:53,640 And so do those seed zones actually match 254 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:54,810 what that inventory is? 255 00:11:54,810 --> 00:11:59,810 So this is a map of northern red oak range in gray. 256 00:11:59,940 --> 00:12:03,750 The polygons that are different, that are levels of green, 257 00:12:03,750 --> 00:12:05,340 are different seed zones. 258 00:12:05,340 --> 00:12:07,290 And then that intensity of green corresponds 259 00:12:07,290 --> 00:12:09,300 to the number of sources that were sold. 260 00:12:09,300 --> 00:12:11,240 So these were mature seedlings, 261 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,190 and where the seed lots were obtained. 262 00:12:14,190 --> 00:12:18,090 And the quick takeaway here is that only 15 to 20% 263 00:12:18,090 --> 00:12:20,280 of all seed zones are represented. 264 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,802 And, again, this is the most commonly propagated 265 00:12:22,802 --> 00:12:27,390 deciduous tree in commercial tree nurseries. 266 00:12:27,390 --> 00:12:30,990 As we move to some of our more nuanced species, 267 00:12:30,990 --> 00:12:33,750 this is a little bit of more tricky figure to understand, 268 00:12:33,750 --> 00:12:35,310 but each of these cells corresponds 269 00:12:35,310 --> 00:12:38,983 to those same seed zones, and that gradient is the same. 270 00:12:41,610 --> 00:12:43,800 So that intensity of green corresponds 271 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,110 to those number of sources that are sold there. 272 00:12:46,110 --> 00:12:50,222 The main takeaway is that there are very few seed zones 273 00:12:50,222 --> 00:12:52,564 of each species that are being sold, 274 00:12:52,564 --> 00:12:54,439 and some of them like swamp white oak, 275 00:12:54,439 --> 00:12:57,090 just about all of those seeds that are being sold, 276 00:12:57,090 --> 00:12:59,010 all of those seedlings that are being grown, 277 00:12:59,010 --> 00:13:00,910 are being obtained from one seed zone. 278 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,500 So I won't dwell on that too much longer. 279 00:13:04,500 --> 00:13:05,970 The last point that I want to leave us with, 280 00:13:05,970 --> 00:13:07,530 and I won't go into too much detail here, 281 00:13:07,530 --> 00:13:12,448 but as we think about tree planting for novel objectives, 282 00:13:12,448 --> 00:13:15,274 for restoration in wetlands, 283 00:13:15,274 --> 00:13:19,053 as we think about targeting species migration, 284 00:13:19,890 --> 00:13:23,247 we may need to develop stock that is a bit more hearty 285 00:13:23,247 --> 00:13:26,880 and resilient, and pairing that with both seed, 286 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,392 as well as that species diversity 287 00:13:30,392 --> 00:13:33,540 will be something we'll need to be focusing on. 288 00:13:33,540 --> 00:13:35,610 The last bit I'll need to highlight here, 289 00:13:35,610 --> 00:13:37,200 I'm not sure where I'm at in terms of time, 290 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,360 but is the human dimensions of it. 291 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:40,260 Five minutes left? 292 00:13:41,215 --> 00:13:44,010 And I won't ask you to digest this figure. 293 00:13:44,010 --> 00:13:45,720 This is merely just promoting a paper 294 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,259 that a colleague just had published. 295 00:13:47,259 --> 00:13:51,210 It really just highlights some of the uncertainties 296 00:13:51,210 --> 00:13:55,410 that many foresters have with tree planting. 297 00:13:55,410 --> 00:13:56,790 There's really a knowledge gap 298 00:13:56,790 --> 00:13:58,050 in terms of the best practices. 299 00:13:58,050 --> 00:14:01,239 This is something that I want to put my chips into. 300 00:14:01,239 --> 00:14:03,060 Where are the finances? 301 00:14:03,060 --> 00:14:04,740 How do I actually pursue this? 302 00:14:04,740 --> 00:14:07,200 And while there is a great bit of knowledge 303 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,330 in terms of reforestation, as we think about some 304 00:14:09,330 --> 00:14:11,530 of these more novel tree planting initiatives, 305 00:14:11,530 --> 00:14:15,240 human dimensions of this play a tremendous role. 306 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,330 So I won't leave you with doom and gloom, but in conclusion, 307 00:14:18,330 --> 00:14:22,200 there's really some avenues for reducing these barriers. 308 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:26,070 Some of these include improving policy and financing. 309 00:14:26,070 --> 00:14:28,800 So many state and federal agencies don't have policies 310 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,110 around the movement of species and genotypes. 311 00:14:31,110 --> 00:14:35,400 And improving policies to be able to support that 312 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:37,710 or at least develop some guardrails 313 00:14:37,710 --> 00:14:39,300 around that would be beneficial 314 00:14:39,300 --> 00:14:41,580 for foresters as well as nurseries who are trying 315 00:14:41,580 --> 00:14:43,033 to make these speculative investments. 316 00:14:43,033 --> 00:14:46,140 Reflecting on programs like the Civilian Conservation Corps, 317 00:14:46,140 --> 00:14:48,660 we now have the proposed Civilian Climate Corps. 318 00:14:48,660 --> 00:14:51,900 Labor is a tremendous bottleneck on much 319 00:14:51,900 --> 00:14:55,110 of these planting efforts as well as nurseries, 320 00:14:55,110 --> 00:14:56,912 and being able to provide that labor 321 00:14:56,912 --> 00:14:59,910 will be able to help support and offset some 322 00:14:59,910 --> 00:15:03,150 of the financial components of this. 323 00:15:03,150 --> 00:15:03,990 For the sake of time, 324 00:15:03,990 --> 00:15:07,260 I'll just quickly jump through a few of these others. 325 00:15:07,260 --> 00:15:11,812 Grants and cost-share programs, again related to finances, 326 00:15:11,812 --> 00:15:14,400 professional development incentives, 327 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:16,860 programs like the Target Plant Concept. 328 00:15:16,860 --> 00:15:20,300 This has been proposed, essentially trying to work 329 00:15:20,300 --> 00:15:22,740 to bring foresters and nurseries together to be able 330 00:15:22,740 --> 00:15:26,970 to develop plants that are most appropriate to a site. 331 00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:29,040 But many foresters don't actually pursue this. 332 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,620 This is something that we've learned in our work. 333 00:15:31,620 --> 00:15:33,630 So developing programs that train folks 334 00:15:33,630 --> 00:15:35,340 on actually how to pursue this. 335 00:15:35,340 --> 00:15:38,430 And then lastly, national seed labeling standards 336 00:15:38,430 --> 00:15:42,210 and developing a high quality database to be able to secure 337 00:15:42,210 --> 00:15:44,610 and identify where those seed zones are coming from. 338 00:15:44,610 --> 00:15:45,878 It's really challenging to call a nursery 339 00:15:45,878 --> 00:15:48,900 and to actually find where those seed zones are coming from. 340 00:15:48,900 --> 00:15:50,910 And it can take a tremendous amount of time, 341 00:15:50,910 --> 00:15:53,550 and oftentimes those seed lots 342 00:15:53,550 --> 00:15:56,190 are often identified as very broad. 343 00:15:56,190 --> 00:15:59,970 So developing that standard and increasing the ways 344 00:15:59,970 --> 00:16:03,090 in which we track, that and the outcomes for our work. 345 00:16:03,090 --> 00:16:04,500 So, gone over. 346 00:16:04,500 --> 00:16:06,366 Thank you for your time--I appreciate it. 347 00:16:06,366 --> 00:16:09,366 (audience applauds) 348 00:16:12,749 --> 00:16:14,301 [Audience Member] Do we have time for questions here? 349 00:16:14,301 --> 00:16:18,968 [Moderator] Yeah, we have a few minutes for questions. 350 00:16:21,739 --> 00:16:24,180 [Audience Member] I've seen this nursery challenge 351 00:16:24,180 --> 00:16:27,870 firsthand, and my question is how can- 352 00:16:27,870 --> 00:16:29,700 it's probably unlikely that the state 353 00:16:29,700 --> 00:16:31,499 or federal government's going to respond 354 00:16:31,499 --> 00:16:33,720 as quickly as we would need them to. 355 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:34,553 [Peter] Yeah. 356 00:16:34,553 --> 00:16:35,386 [Audience Member] Well what about the private sector? 357 00:16:35,386 --> 00:16:38,610 Are they now being able to ramp up their abilities? 358 00:16:38,610 --> 00:16:41,292 Have they seen the opportunity in terms of supply and demand 359 00:16:41,292 --> 00:16:43,710 to help fill this gap? 360 00:16:43,710 --> 00:16:44,850 [Peter] I'm not sure I have that answer. 361 00:16:44,850 --> 00:16:46,377 I don't know if there's others in the room 362 00:16:46,377 --> 00:16:48,063 that have worked on this. 363 00:16:48,063 --> 00:16:50,240 I mean I think that as they've led off, 364 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:55,240 we really need to see that sustained market pressure 365 00:16:55,650 --> 00:16:58,858 for the private sector to actually respond to it. 366 00:16:58,858 --> 00:16:59,691 [Audience Member] Mm-hmm. 367 00:16:59,691 --> 00:17:02,810 [Peter] Anecdotally, when I speak to nurseries, 368 00:17:02,810 --> 00:17:06,990 it doesn't seem like it's enough of that market pressure. 369 00:17:06,990 --> 00:17:09,990 But again, it takes 3, 5, 10 years 370 00:17:09,990 --> 00:17:11,760 to start growing that stock. 371 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,760 So, that delay is further going to compound the challenge 372 00:17:16,830 --> 00:17:18,270 for us down the line. 373 00:17:18,270 --> 00:17:19,920 But I don't have evidence of that. 374 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,683 It's more of an anecdotal (indistinct) conversation. 375 00:17:23,820 --> 00:17:25,560 [Audience Member] And do you have a sense of, I guess, 376 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:29,089 reforestation projects that you mentioned, 377 00:17:29,089 --> 00:17:34,089 planting bare-root seedlings versus seeds in general? 378 00:17:34,980 --> 00:17:38,580 Like is there, what proportions? 379 00:17:38,580 --> 00:17:41,790 [Peter] Yeah, so I mean, so direct seeding the seeds 380 00:17:41,790 --> 00:17:43,770 versus planting a bare-root seedling 381 00:17:43,770 --> 00:17:47,130 versus planting a containerized stock 382 00:17:47,130 --> 00:17:48,480 that's in an actual container. 383 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,406 There are pros and cons to all of those. 384 00:17:50,406 --> 00:17:55,406 In terms of the ontogeny of an organism, 385 00:17:57,360 --> 00:18:00,570 it's much cheaper to direct seed, 386 00:18:00,570 --> 00:18:05,570 but the probability of survival is significantly lower. 387 00:18:05,700 --> 00:18:07,140 I mean, even for planting a red oak 388 00:18:07,140 --> 00:18:09,348 that's 3 millimeters versus 10 millimeters, 389 00:18:09,348 --> 00:18:14,348 the likelihood of that red oak reaching maturity is 10% 390 00:18:15,990 --> 00:18:18,990 for a smaller seedling and 50% for a larger seedling. 391 00:18:18,990 --> 00:18:21,330 But that's also a cost-- it takes more time 392 00:18:21,330 --> 00:18:22,683 to grow that seedling. 393 00:18:23,670 --> 00:18:26,190 So yeah, there's costs and benefits. 394 00:18:26,190 --> 00:18:28,407 It really depends on what the landowner's objective is 395 00:18:28,407 --> 00:18:30,273 and the nursery's capacity. 396 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:34,679 [Moderator] Okay, we have 10 seconds. 397 00:18:34,679 --> 00:18:37,080 (audience laughs) 398 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:37,913 [Audience Member] Pete, thanks. 399 00:18:37,913 --> 00:18:39,300 I think my question's a little bit like the first one 400 00:18:39,300 --> 00:18:43,260 but especially to your more nuanced species. 401 00:18:43,260 --> 00:18:46,050 Is there really demand there, 402 00:18:46,050 --> 00:18:48,870 and it's just this three to five year, whatever year, lag? 403 00:18:48,870 --> 00:18:51,900 Or is the demand not even there? 404 00:18:51,900 --> 00:18:54,330 Like from the science side, you think it should be there 405 00:18:54,330 --> 00:18:56,730 because of climate change, because of et cetera. 406 00:18:57,587 --> 00:18:59,580 [Peter] Chris, what are you running into 407 00:18:59,580 --> 00:19:02,340 in your work as you try to scale up? 408 00:19:02,340 --> 00:19:04,140 Chris has been working on this stuff and really 409 00:19:04,140 --> 00:19:06,713 represents the practitioner perspective, trying to- 410 00:19:06,713 --> 00:19:08,820 [Chris] We've done a project that merged 411 00:19:08,820 --> 00:19:09,720 with your project- 412 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:10,553 [Peter] Yeah. 413 00:19:10,553 --> 00:19:13,080 [Chris] Where we were trying to get supply 414 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:14,538 and were not able to, right? 415 00:19:14,538 --> 00:19:15,371 [Peter] Yeah. 416 00:19:15,371 --> 00:19:16,204 [Chris] So that would be an example. 417 00:19:16,204 --> 00:19:17,254 But I think the demand's periodic, 418 00:19:17,254 --> 00:19:20,851 and what you pointed to as far as the market signal 419 00:19:20,851 --> 00:19:24,600 is periodic and it's focused on grant funding 420 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:26,100 or short term funding sources- 421 00:19:26,100 --> 00:19:26,933 [Peter] Yeah. 422 00:19:26,933 --> 00:19:28,908 [Chris] Where they need a sustained market signal 423 00:19:28,908 --> 00:19:31,710 ramp-up, I think that's what I've heard. 424 00:19:31,710 --> 00:19:32,543 So is that-? 425 00:19:32,543 --> 00:19:33,883 [Audience Member] That's great clarification, yeah. 426 00:19:33,883 --> 00:19:37,657 So, what a nursery needs use versus what a forester 427 00:19:37,657 --> 00:19:42,000 or a landowner is able to pursue is cyclical 428 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,909 versus that (indistinct) 429 00:19:44,909 --> 00:19:46,353 Thanks for that perspective.