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Thank you for coming today.

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I will wait till the end

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to tell you what these little
goodies on the side are,

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but I'm Georgia Murray.

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I'm a staff scientist for the
Appalachian Mountain Club.

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I've been with the AMC since 2000.

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And this talk is gonna dig deep

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into AMC's Snow Monitoring
that we've been doing

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for decades in the White Mountains.

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And I'll also talk about how

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the multiple types of data sets,

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will enable us to build a
better picture of mountain snow,

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as well as how they fit
into our climate monitoring,

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and the overall network that we have

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in the White Mountain National Forest.

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And of course, this
work is done in a team,

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that are listed here,

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and here are their faces as well,

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so you can put a name to a face.

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Jordan Tourville, who's attending today,

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Maya Shyevitch, who's one
of our research interns,

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Miriam Ritchie, our research assistant,

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and Dr. Sarah Nelson,
the director of research.

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And this work couldn't happen
without other key staff

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at the Appalachian Mountain Club,

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including seasonal interns,
the hut caretakers.

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You'll see how they're
really involved in this.

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Our reservation staff,

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who get this data on a daily basis,

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and report it online,

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so the National Weather Service
can utilize the snow data.

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And then our many partners,

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as well as the National Weather Service

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who supported the, some
of our monitoring work.

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So AMC has been doing a
number of different types

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of monitoring in the White
Mountain National Forest

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and snow is one of them.

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But it's part of a larger
network of monitoring

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that we do around plant phenology,

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air and water quality,

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and climate change
indicators in particular.

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And so this snow work you will see,

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is part of our climate work.

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And we also engage citizen science,

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in collecting some of this information.

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This is a map of the White
Mountain National Forest.

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The darker green is the wilderness
areas within the forest.

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There's lots of dots.

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And this is kind of a busy map.

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Trust me that I'll show a cleaner map,

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so that you can see where the snow

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monitoring is in particular.

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But over here is Lonesome Lake,

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is one of our winter monitoring huts.

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Here's another, wait, it goes Lonesome,

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(laughs) Zealand, and then Carter.

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Carter is over in this area right here.

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So those are the white.

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And then the, the purple squares are also

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long-term monitoring sites on
the summit of Mount Washington

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by the Mount Washington Observatory,

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but Pinkham Notch is run by
the Appalachian Mountain Club.

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And then these other
locations are long-term

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hobo weather stations, which
we'll get into as well.

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So, why do we care about snow,

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and what's happening with snow

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in the mountains in particular?

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I borrowed this great graphic

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from the Hubbard Brook
Research Foundation,

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that touches on the many impacts

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of the changes we're seeing in snow.

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You know, we're seeing cold and snow

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an are going away in this area.

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And of course that impacts
recreation with lower snow packs.

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It impacts the water cycle with not only

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less coming into snow,

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but then it's going out in different,

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in different flushes than
it's typically doing.

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The seasonal patterns are
changing with the water cycle,

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and of course there's impacts to wildlife

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that are adapted to these
climates and snow environments.

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If there's less snow,
there's less camouflage,

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for the snowshoe here, for example.

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And then there are also
forest health impacts,

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and expansion of organisms

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such as ticks and mosquitoes.

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So there's many impacts
from both losing cold,

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and losing snow, and just the
shorter season altogether.

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And AMC has had particular interest

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in the Alpine areas of the
White Mountain National Forest.

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This is the presidential range here,

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and the different colors are the different

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Alpine community types.

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And we made this map
a number of years ago.

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I think Jordan might be
revisiting some of this,

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but you know, we're
really interested in how

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changes in snow, and changes in climate,

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may be affecting the species here.

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And we've been tracking
Alpine plant phenology

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as one of the ways to look at

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how there might be
impacts to these species,

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and how some species may be adjusting

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to the changes with less
snow or warmer springs,

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and some species may not.

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And so we are starting to build

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a long-term phenology data set,

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and Jordan's put together
some of that work

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showing some interesting patterns,

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particularly with Alpine, that
they may not be responsive,

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or as responsive as as other species then,

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to the spring warming.

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So, so what have we been doing

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when it comes to snow monitoring
in the White Mountains?

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We have a long term
Pinkham Notch daily snow,

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both snow depth and snowfall from 1930.

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This picture is from the big snows

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that we had in the sixties.

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You can see these down there.

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So that's been going on.

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And that's thanks to Joe Dodge

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who was around in the thirties,

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and realized he needed local information.

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He was getting grade Maine
weather service forecast,

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et cetera, and realized he needed

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on the ground observations.

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So he started monitoring at Pinkham Notch,

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and also was a co-founder of
the Mount Watkin Observatory.

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And of course that data set is,

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is really essential to
understanding mountain climate.

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AMC is, also has this three huts that we,

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again, I had pointed
out earlier on the map,

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where we have daily snow
on and off since 1990.

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So there's, there's some gaps
in some of the data sets,

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but we're starting to
really dive into this.

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And then since about 2007
for the lower elevations,

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we have hobo temperature loggers,

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which we're looking at
do they serve as a proxy

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for snowmelt timing in particular?

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Because that is a
particular interest to us,

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in relation to plant
response to climate change.

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So are we seeing snowmelt earlier?

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Are the plants responding to that?

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And then the last piece
is the citizen science,

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or community snow observation,

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where we get recreators to help us

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collect snow depth information.

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We've been promoting that since

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about 2017 in the northeast,

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and really getting some,
some great spatial data

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that we would not have had.

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So it's really adding to our dataset.

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And so what is happening?

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When we look at the long-term record

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for winter temperatures, we
are seeing a warming across,

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you know, the region New
Hampshire is warming at the most,

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or had the fastest rate of warming.

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Pinkham Notch is on par with that,

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or just a little bit under,

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but the summit is lagging
a little bit behind.

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And, and in my analysis
for 2000 through 2018,

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it was not statistically warming,

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but the, the trend was certainly positive,

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in the positive direction.

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As we're filling out this
even further into 2022,

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we are seeing it shift.

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So the news is, it's still get,

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it's still warming, it's getting worse.

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We're seeing even the summit

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transitioning into warmer winters.

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And so here's the actual record of the

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total snowfall at Pinkham Notch.

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You know, there's some gaps back here

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because of our data criteria
of what was acceptable.

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But when we look at the long-term record,

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we're seeing 20.7
centimeters less per decade.

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So that's quite a bit of
shift in total snowfall.

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And then when we look at
the timing of the snowmelt,

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in the long-term record,

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we're also seeing a shift
earlier in the season,

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1.7 days per decade,

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which overall, it's
about 14 days, two weeks,

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of the snowmelt happening
earlier at Pinkham Notch.

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And so putting it in a
little bit easier terms,

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it's about, we're losing about 50%

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of the maximum snow depth at Pinkham.

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Snowfall's declining by about 25%,

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and the snow pack is melting
out two weeks earlier.

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So what about the other data that,

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that we have available to us?

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So we just went over, Pinkham?

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We have some data from
the Highland Center,

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although it's spotty back through time.

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There's the Tuckerman Ravine,
Hermit Lake Shelter data,

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and Carter Notch, Zealand
Falls Hut, and Lonesome Lake.

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And those are the three
I mentioned earlier.

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And so what does it, what
does the data look like?

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This is the 2023 snow season.

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So what's nice about this,

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is you start to see the
differences obviously,

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with elevation, the two
sites that are seeing

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the deepest snow,

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what would make sense is Tuckerman Ravine

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and Carter Notch over 3000 feet,

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and then Lonesome and Zealand,

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and then Pinkham and Highland.

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And then the other piece
of this that's really,

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you know, gonna inform some of our work,

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is that snowmelt timing with elevation.

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So you're starting to see

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that indeed, snow milk
is happening earlier

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at these lower elevation sites,

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and snow is hanging on at
the higher elevation sites.

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So one of the questions for us is,

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do these mountain sites have,

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provide a snow refugia that may be

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hanging on to snow later in the season?

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And this is Carter Notch,

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the caretaker, taking an observation.

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But this was before we got the rain.

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So, and I mentioned that we
have these other instruments

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that may help us
understand snowmelt timing.

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We have these hobo data loggers.

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This is an example of one
that is in a forested site.

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And so it's just a
simple temperature logger

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that is sitting on the surface.

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And what we decided to do was look at co,

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fairly co-located, they're
a little bit separated,

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but the snow stakes,

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which are in open canopy versus the hobos,

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which tend to be under life canopy,

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but they're paired with
the phenology plots.

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And we're looking at when does the

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surface temperature start
to fluctuate diurnally?

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That would indicate that
the snow has melted.

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So, and we look at that at Pinkham Notch,

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we see a fairly good relationship here.

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What's also interesting is
just to look at the range

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of snowmelt timing.

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You know, it spans almost 60 days.

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But the relationship is quite robust

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between the snow stake,

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and the hobo snowmelt timing.

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We look at Carter Notch, we
have less data to examine.

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Not a bad relationship,

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but they're, you know, not
a great end value here.

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But it's, it's not too bad.

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And the other thing is,

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is this data only spans 20 days.

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And the hobo is earlier
in this, in this site.

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And then the same for Zealand Falls,

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a scatter of data,

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the relationship is not as great,

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but hobo again is melting out earlier.

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So the other piece that
I mentioned earlier,

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is the Community Snow Observation Program.

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It's a campaign to measure snow

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by back country recreationists.

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Anyone can participate.

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All you need to do is have
the app and a snow stick,

260
00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:46,928
you know, whether that's
an avalanche probe,

261
00:12:46,928 --> 00:12:50,460
or a just a yardstick,

262
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has to be in meters though, centimeters,

263
00:12:53,220 --> 00:12:56,700
because that's what the app will take.

264
00:12:56,700 --> 00:12:59,070
You can go to this website to learn more.

265
00:12:59,070 --> 00:13:00,693
Oops. Go back.

266
00:13:02,310 --> 00:13:03,930
And then this paper's a really,

267
00:13:03,930 --> 00:13:05,070
if you wanna learn more about

268
00:13:05,070 --> 00:13:08,018
how this data has been utilized out West,

269
00:13:08,018 --> 00:13:11,190
because this program started out west,

270
00:13:11,190 --> 00:13:12,655
it's a great paper because he,

271
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he not only puts the community

272
00:13:15,510 --> 00:13:18,090
snow observers as a co-author,

273
00:13:18,090 --> 00:13:21,150
which I think is really
cool for citizen science,

274
00:13:21,150 --> 00:13:26,150
but it shows how much this data improves

275
00:13:26,340 --> 00:13:28,200
in all snow models as they look

276
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,920
to expand from the site data

277
00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,500
to interpolate across the landscape,

278
00:13:34,500 --> 00:13:37,740
that this data is really
helping out in that aspect.

279
00:13:37,740 --> 00:13:40,260
So community snow has been going on

280
00:13:40,260 --> 00:13:42,720
for a number of years,
and it started out west.

281
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,986
Here's our little eastern
blob, we gotta expand,

282
00:13:45,986 --> 00:13:49,080
but you can see that this
is an international program,

283
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:53,850
and it's, you know, they're
a great group to work with.

284
00:13:53,850 --> 00:13:56,160
So what about locally
in the White Mountains?

285
00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:58,920
Again, this is the White
Mountain National Forest,

286
00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:02,070
and it's a closeup of our sites.

287
00:14:02,070 --> 00:14:05,910
So over here is Carter
Notch, Pinkham Notch,

288
00:14:05,910 --> 00:14:07,650
Hermit Lake, which is up in elevation.

289
00:14:07,650 --> 00:14:09,540
The elevations are also here.

290
00:14:09,540 --> 00:14:14,250
Highland Center over here
in Crawford, Notch Zealand,

291
00:14:14,250 --> 00:14:16,260
and then Lonesome Lake,

292
00:14:16,260 --> 00:14:20,850
which is over here in Franconia Notch,

293
00:14:20,850 --> 00:14:22,860
or adjacent to it.

294
00:14:22,860 --> 00:14:24,711
So the dots are the CSO measurements.

295
00:14:24,711 --> 00:14:25,710
Got cut off,

296
00:14:25,710 --> 00:14:29,610
but those are CSO measurements
that have been taken

297
00:14:29,610 --> 00:14:34,590
again over the 2017 to 2022 I believe.

298
00:14:34,590 --> 00:14:35,670
So you can see a scattering,

299
00:14:35,670 --> 00:14:37,410
you can see that some
people are doing like

300
00:14:37,410 --> 00:14:39,000
along the trails, which is great.

301
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,000
We don't want people going
off into the hinterlands

302
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,370
and getting, you know, lost.

303
00:14:44,370 --> 00:14:47,580
But it also is adding around these sites

304
00:14:47,580 --> 00:14:48,870
where we have permanent plots.

305
00:14:48,870 --> 00:14:50,370
So what is it doing?

306
00:14:50,370 --> 00:14:54,780
So remember that plot
I showed you of 2023,

307
00:14:54,780 --> 00:14:56,730
now it's a really busy plot,

308
00:14:56,730 --> 00:15:00,360
but please pay attention to
where the red is, the red dots.

309
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,030
That is the CSO data in that same year.

310
00:15:03,030 --> 00:15:05,670
So you can see it's following
the general pattern.

311
00:15:05,670 --> 00:15:07,230
There's lots of people out when you know,

312
00:15:07,230 --> 00:15:08,790
we got a lot of snow.

313
00:15:08,790 --> 00:15:11,610
And then, you know, it peters off.

314
00:15:11,610 --> 00:15:12,540
And one of the things

315
00:15:12,540 --> 00:15:15,060
I've been talking to others about is,

316
00:15:15,060 --> 00:15:16,560
how do we get people out there

317
00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:17,820
when the snow is going away?

318
00:15:17,820 --> 00:15:18,720
Because that's actually,

319
00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,150
the snowmelt is really important to us.

320
00:15:21,150 --> 00:15:22,590
And so we wanna, we wanna,

321
00:15:22,590 --> 00:15:24,393
did you gimme a... Yeah. Okay.

322
00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:29,280
And so looking at this
data in another way,

323
00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,580
if we look at elevation,
these are permanent plots,

324
00:15:32,580 --> 00:15:36,090
both our plots, and the
main snow survey data,

325
00:15:36,090 --> 00:15:37,920
which actually is in New Hampshire,

326
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:39,897
and then you fill it in at CSO.

327
00:15:39,897 --> 00:15:41,970
And so you can really see how

328
00:15:41,970 --> 00:15:43,950
this data adds across elevation.

329
00:15:43,950 --> 00:15:48,060
And you can also see that
CSO folks are capturing

330
00:15:48,060 --> 00:15:50,100
this upper elevation deeper snow,

331
00:15:50,100 --> 00:15:51,720
that this data says isn't,

332
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,850
this is the observatory over here,

333
00:15:53,850 --> 00:15:56,670
where all the snow blows
off on Mount Washington,

334
00:15:56,670 --> 00:15:59,280
so it makes sense that
this would peter off,

335
00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,350
but it is nice that they're capturing

336
00:16:01,350 --> 00:16:03,720
something our permanent plots are not.

337
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,920
And again, a closeup of Pinkham Notch,

338
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:09,810
and the snow data.

339
00:16:09,810 --> 00:16:12,240
And this is just showing that indeed,

340
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,120
the CSO data is getting deeper

341
00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,271
snow than the permanent plot,

342
00:16:17,271 --> 00:16:19,140
and this may be due to

343
00:16:19,140 --> 00:16:22,380
where those are being taken
at different elevations,

344
00:16:22,380 --> 00:16:25,200
or that they're, the
citizen scientists are,

345
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:26,587
you know, again skewed to,

346
00:16:26,587 --> 00:16:27,420
"Oh it's snowed.

347
00:16:27,420 --> 00:16:28,530
Let me go out and take a measurement."

348
00:16:28,530 --> 00:16:30,330
So there's probably some bias there.

349
00:16:31,350 --> 00:16:32,340
So where are we going?

350
00:16:32,340 --> 00:16:36,990
We're gonna work with satellite imagery to

351
00:16:36,990 --> 00:16:39,510
see if we can get
snowmelt timing from that,

352
00:16:39,510 --> 00:16:41,850
merge all of these different data sets,

353
00:16:41,850 --> 00:16:44,550
and continue to promote CSO.

354
00:16:44,550 --> 00:16:46,500
Some of the, some of that's right there.

355
00:16:46,500 --> 00:16:48,150
We're having a February snow blitz,

356
00:16:48,150 --> 00:16:50,370
there's contests, you can win stuff.

357
00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:53,851
And then linking snow
depth to plant phonology

358
00:16:53,851 --> 00:16:57,990
is one of our key, key
goals in the future.

359
00:16:57,990 --> 00:17:00,360
And then I wanted to mention
the Northeast Snow study.

360
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:01,590
I know I'm running out of time,

361
00:17:01,590 --> 00:17:05,640
but if you're interested in helping us

362
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,430
basically identify where people are

363
00:17:08,430 --> 00:17:10,260
collecting snow information,

364
00:17:10,260 --> 00:17:12,570
and/or interested in snow information,

365
00:17:12,570 --> 00:17:14,916
you can go to those QR codes,

366
00:17:14,916 --> 00:17:18,610
and help us fill out surveys that would

367
00:17:20,670 --> 00:17:23,340
help us collect this information as we

368
00:17:23,340 --> 00:17:27,300
look to figure out where
new snow monitoring

369
00:17:27,300 --> 00:17:29,580
could be helpful in the Northeast.

370
00:17:29,580 --> 00:17:31,170
So I might leave it there,

371
00:17:31,170 --> 00:17:33,930
although I do wanna say
thank you to so many people

372
00:17:33,930 --> 00:17:37,950
that are involved in this,
and have no questions,

373
00:17:37,950 --> 00:17:39,030
but I'm gonna leave it on this slide,

374
00:17:39,030 --> 00:17:41,433
in case people wanna take a photo.

375
00:17:48,038 --> 00:17:48,871
Thank you, Georgia.

376
00:17:48,871 --> 00:17:51,150
So we've got about a minute,

377
00:17:51,150 --> 00:17:52,290
two minutes for questions.

378
00:17:52,290 --> 00:17:53,890
Does anybody have any questions?

379
00:17:57,420 --> 00:17:59,580
Georgia, I'm Beverly
(indistinct) with (indistinct).

380
00:17:59,580 --> 00:18:00,690
Fantastic Work.

381
00:18:00,690 --> 00:18:03,330
It's like so important
to have this monitoring.

382
00:18:03,330 --> 00:18:06,360
Can you say anything about partnerships

383
00:18:06,360 --> 00:18:09,150
with researchers at like
the state universities

384
00:18:09,150 --> 00:18:11,370
across for NESS data Data?

385
00:18:11,370 --> 00:18:16,260
Yeah, well Sarah is,
is very tied in already

386
00:18:16,260 --> 00:18:19,650
to the University of New
Hampshire with Liz Borkowski,

387
00:18:19,650 --> 00:18:23,160
and the Nest Project
itself is sort of like,

388
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,320
that's part of what I think
is gonna come out of that,

389
00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:26,700
is even more collaboration

390
00:18:26,700 --> 00:18:30,570
across different people doing this work.

391
00:18:30,570 --> 00:18:32,130
But yeah, I think we,

392
00:18:32,130 --> 00:18:34,290
we have an eye towards making sure

393
00:18:34,290 --> 00:18:35,640
we're trying to connect with people.

394
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,040
So if you know of other people

395
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,980
that we should connect
with, we should do that.

396
00:18:40,980 --> 00:18:42,690
I think it would be great.

397
00:18:42,690 --> 00:18:44,160
We, you know, we're very open

398
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:45,540
to working with partners,

399
00:18:45,540 --> 00:18:50,540
and figuring out how to
amplify all of our resources,

400
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,040
to get a better picture of,

401
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,353
of northeastern mountain snow. So.

402
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,240
Is there currently something being done

403
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,486
on top of, well the mountain itself,

404
00:19:03,486 --> 00:19:05,607
and (indistinct).

405
00:19:07,546 --> 00:19:09,963
(indistinct)

406
00:19:11,670 --> 00:19:13,687
I'll check out the poster then.

407
00:19:13,687 --> 00:19:15,060
All these QR codes.

408
00:19:15,060 --> 00:19:16,113
Thank you so much.