1 00:00:05,430 --> 00:00:07,460 - Our speaker today is Jim Duncan, 2 00:00:07,460 --> 00:00:08,293 who is the Director 3 00:00:08,293 --> 00:00:11,130 of the Forest Ecosystems Monitoring Cooperative. 4 00:00:11,130 --> 00:00:14,080 And today he's talking about monitoring trends 5 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:16,510 in the severity, extent and frequency 6 00:00:16,510 --> 00:00:20,520 of key disturbance regimes in Northeastern forests. 7 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:24,360 And I just wanna add that there'll be 15 minutes of talk 8 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,080 and five minutes of questions following. 9 00:00:26,080 --> 00:00:27,530 You can either put those in the chat 10 00:00:27,530 --> 00:00:29,950 or at the end of the talk, unmute yourself 11 00:00:29,950 --> 00:00:32,170 and ask your question of Jim directly. 12 00:00:32,170 --> 00:00:33,430 Go ahead, Jim. 13 00:00:33,430 --> 00:00:34,460 - Yeah, thank you, Nancy. 14 00:00:34,460 --> 00:00:36,560 Thank you all for being here. 15 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,160 I am excited to present this work, 16 00:00:39,160 --> 00:00:41,400 but I am really presenting this on behalf 17 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:46,400 of Emma Tate, and Pia, and others in our team, 18 00:00:47,420 --> 00:00:49,680 and also the larger group that really worked a lot on this. 19 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,660 So while it's exciting to talk about the results, 20 00:00:53,660 --> 00:00:56,130 I'm definitely one of the many people who've worked on this. 21 00:00:56,130 --> 00:00:59,430 So it's a really exciting project to share with you. 22 00:00:59,430 --> 00:01:02,940 And I look forward to hearing your thoughts. 23 00:01:02,940 --> 00:01:05,530 So this effort was really looking 24 00:01:05,530 --> 00:01:08,080 at shifts in disturbance regimes. 25 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,350 As you know, these might be responding to climate change, 26 00:01:11,350 --> 00:01:13,840 they might be responding to other stressors 27 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,590 and kind of compounding factors. 28 00:01:15,590 --> 00:01:16,690 There's a whole bunch of reasons 29 00:01:16,690 --> 00:01:18,320 why disturbance patterns might be shifting 30 00:01:18,320 --> 00:01:19,870 across the region. 31 00:01:19,870 --> 00:01:22,700 This was developed by FDMC to respond to interest 32 00:01:22,700 --> 00:01:25,390 in knowing what our existing data streams tell us 33 00:01:25,390 --> 00:01:27,920 about disturbance regimes in the region 34 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:29,120 and whether they are shifting. 35 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,750 It's a lofty goal, and there are many smart people 36 00:01:31,750 --> 00:01:34,360 who are doing great work on this question. 37 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,960 And our goal was not to do new research, 38 00:01:36,960 --> 00:01:39,400 not to reinvent the wheel, but really trying 39 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,710 to provide a more digestible starting point 40 00:01:41,710 --> 00:01:43,750 for exploring the question of how disturbances 41 00:01:43,750 --> 00:01:45,810 might be changing over time, 42 00:01:45,810 --> 00:01:49,030 and to do that in a fairly straightforward framework 43 00:01:49,030 --> 00:01:50,470 when possible, so that you can look 44 00:01:50,470 --> 00:01:53,510 at multiple disturbances side by side 45 00:01:53,510 --> 00:01:55,350 and see how they compare. 46 00:01:55,350 --> 00:01:58,810 So the first thing we wanna talk about 47 00:01:58,810 --> 00:02:01,500 is what do we mean by disturbance, of course. 48 00:02:01,500 --> 00:02:04,610 Here disturbance is an event that causes change to 49 00:02:04,610 --> 00:02:06,550 or disrupts the function and services 50 00:02:06,550 --> 00:02:08,450 of forest ecosystems, 51 00:02:08,450 --> 00:02:10,560 and disturbance regimes are the patterns 52 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,003 of a given disturbance event and its impacts. 53 00:02:14,130 --> 00:02:17,200 And so, looking at this project, as we developed it, 54 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:18,870 we were working with partners to figure out what 55 00:02:18,870 --> 00:02:21,290 are the key drivers and responses to disturbance 56 00:02:21,290 --> 00:02:22,420 that we care about 57 00:02:22,420 --> 00:02:25,073 and that we wanna look at trends over time in, 58 00:02:26,020 --> 00:02:29,000 what are the historical and anticipated shifts in extent, 59 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,490 severity and frequency in those regimes, 60 00:02:31,490 --> 00:02:34,120 and what sources are available for baseline 61 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,470 and monitoring information about these regimes, 62 00:02:36,470 --> 00:02:37,580 like what's already being collected 63 00:02:37,580 --> 00:02:39,180 so we can build on what we have. 64 00:02:40,530 --> 00:02:43,960 There are many potential disturbances to consider. 65 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,020 We, in this analysis that I'm gonna talk about today, 66 00:02:46,020 --> 00:02:48,000 are focused specifically on drivers, 67 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:52,010 and those include flooding, high winds, fire, and drought, 68 00:02:52,010 --> 00:02:54,210 and then pests and diseases, 69 00:02:54,210 --> 00:02:57,530 which we classified into native pests, 70 00:02:57,530 --> 00:03:01,200 established invasive pests and advancing invasives. 71 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,780 So kind of three different cuts of that. 72 00:03:03,780 --> 00:03:08,120 And as part of the project, we generated two major outputs. 73 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,650 The first is a resource finder. 74 00:03:10,650 --> 00:03:11,630 We want people to be able 75 00:03:11,630 --> 00:03:14,390 to identify where monitoring of forest disturbance 76 00:03:14,390 --> 00:03:16,840 is occurring and quickly find that data 77 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,720 and be able to access it, bring it into their own work, 78 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,123 or potentially replicate it. 79 00:03:23,050 --> 00:03:25,340 The other piece that we wanted to provide 80 00:03:25,340 --> 00:03:28,130 is a trend analysis, so what's the overview of the patterns 81 00:03:28,130 --> 00:03:31,733 in each disturbance driver and analysis of change over time, 82 00:03:31,733 --> 00:03:32,600 and this is the second topic 83 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,163 that I'm gonna spend most of our time on here today. 84 00:03:36,140 --> 00:03:40,410 So the ways that you can get into this information 85 00:03:40,410 --> 00:03:42,970 are primarily two, there's a technical report 86 00:03:42,970 --> 00:03:45,070 that has a detailed analysis and methodology 87 00:03:45,070 --> 00:03:48,420 for each disturbance driver that we looked at, 88 00:03:48,420 --> 00:03:51,070 and we put together a website that allows you 89 00:03:51,070 --> 00:03:55,730 to explore the available resources by disturbance type, 90 00:03:55,730 --> 00:03:58,580 and then also browse the results of the analysis. 91 00:03:58,580 --> 00:04:00,470 You can look at the region wide analysis 92 00:04:00,470 --> 00:04:04,010 or state level analysis for each of the disturbance drivers, 93 00:04:04,010 --> 00:04:06,970 overlay trends, and dig into those, 94 00:04:06,970 --> 00:04:08,100 as well as see highlights 95 00:04:08,100 --> 00:04:11,040 or summaries of those trends on those pages. 96 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:12,770 Highly encourage you to check out that site 97 00:04:12,770 --> 00:04:14,943 if you wanna explore more on your own. 98 00:04:17,330 --> 00:04:21,230 So I wanted to start with really getting into the drivers 99 00:04:21,230 --> 00:04:23,200 with significant trends over time. 100 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:24,620 So I think we might spend a little bit more time 101 00:04:24,620 --> 00:04:25,571 on these 'cause this 102 00:04:25,571 --> 00:04:28,500 is where we found something interesting, potentially. 103 00:04:28,500 --> 00:04:30,540 The first we're gonna talk about as high wind. 104 00:04:30,540 --> 00:04:32,620 As you can imagine, high winds 105 00:04:32,620 --> 00:04:36,260 can be a forest disturbance event when it causes wind throw, 106 00:04:36,260 --> 00:04:38,710 uprooting or tree breakage. 107 00:04:38,710 --> 00:04:41,810 We used Global Daily Summaries data set 108 00:04:41,810 --> 00:04:45,550 to be able to pick out five-second wind speed maxes. 109 00:04:45,550 --> 00:04:49,130 So we looked at any wind greater than 55 miles an hour 110 00:04:49,130 --> 00:04:52,650 because of its connection to various scales 111 00:04:52,650 --> 00:04:54,590 that caused tree breakage. 112 00:04:54,590 --> 00:04:58,903 That allows us to have data from 2001 to 2020, 113 00:04:58,903 --> 00:05:02,913 1,800 events across 73 stations shown on the map there. 114 00:05:03,900 --> 00:05:04,940 So what did we find? 115 00:05:04,940 --> 00:05:08,124 Are high winds becoming more frequent? 116 00:05:08,124 --> 00:05:09,780 No, we're not seeing that. 117 00:05:09,780 --> 00:05:11,630 There's a small decrease in Vermont, 118 00:05:11,630 --> 00:05:14,973 but though it's significant, it's not very large. 119 00:05:16,450 --> 00:05:18,230 Is this high wind happening 120 00:05:18,230 --> 00:05:20,010 in more places across the region? 121 00:05:20,010 --> 00:05:24,010 Yes, we are seeing it statistically both in Massachusetts 122 00:05:24,010 --> 00:05:25,870 and at the regional scale. 123 00:05:25,870 --> 00:05:27,760 And are they getting more severe? 124 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,310 And interestingly, they are getting less severe, 125 00:05:31,310 --> 00:05:33,710 and that's happening visually 126 00:05:33,710 --> 00:05:36,520 and in four of the states themselves. 127 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,220 So diving into this a little bit more, 128 00:05:38,220 --> 00:05:39,720 what does that look like? 129 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,050 When we were talking about high winds happening 130 00:05:42,050 --> 00:05:45,020 in more places, is it increasing in extent? 131 00:05:45,020 --> 00:05:45,910 You can see the number 132 00:05:45,910 --> 00:05:47,940 of stations reporting high wind events 133 00:05:47,940 --> 00:05:51,270 that could cause tree breakage is going up over time 134 00:05:51,270 --> 00:05:55,130 by about a number of 20, and that pattern is holding, 135 00:05:55,130 --> 00:05:58,070 though for a first smaller scale, in Massachusetts. 136 00:05:58,070 --> 00:06:01,870 And we're seeing some pretty steep drops in severity. 137 00:06:01,870 --> 00:06:04,660 So if we look both at the average maximum wind speed 138 00:06:04,660 --> 00:06:07,130 and the number of events in the 95th percentile, 139 00:06:07,130 --> 00:06:08,300 both are declining. 140 00:06:08,300 --> 00:06:09,810 The 95th percentile, as you can see, 141 00:06:09,810 --> 00:06:12,000 is really highly driven by hurricane Katrina, 142 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,270 where we had some particularly high winds spread out 143 00:06:14,270 --> 00:06:15,450 across the region. 144 00:06:15,450 --> 00:06:18,580 So that might be more explaining that pattern there. 145 00:06:18,580 --> 00:06:21,820 The drop though in average maximum wind speed over time 146 00:06:21,820 --> 00:06:23,633 is a more clear decline. 147 00:06:25,430 --> 00:06:26,600 And as I've mentioned, 148 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:28,860 that holds both in Maine and in the region, 149 00:06:28,860 --> 00:06:30,430 as well as the four states shown, 150 00:06:30,430 --> 00:06:32,723 Maine, New Hampshire, New York and Vermont. 151 00:06:34,090 --> 00:06:35,910 Next up, we looked at fire. 152 00:06:35,910 --> 00:06:38,500 This is not something that we talk about as often, 153 00:06:38,500 --> 00:06:41,440 especially in kind of the wild lands, 154 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:42,989 but it is becoming more of an issue as this, 155 00:06:42,989 --> 00:06:45,370 as the photo in the White Mountains shows. 156 00:06:45,370 --> 00:06:47,520 It was just something that when it does happen, 157 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,350 is very visible and very noticeable, 158 00:06:49,350 --> 00:06:51,230 and it's also a management tool, 159 00:06:51,230 --> 00:06:52,950 especially in Southern New England. 160 00:06:52,950 --> 00:06:54,703 So fire as a disturbance regime is something 161 00:06:54,703 --> 00:06:56,510 that we wanna think about. 162 00:06:56,510 --> 00:06:59,490 We used the Fire Program analysis, FOD, 163 00:06:59,490 --> 00:07:01,160 the fire-occurrence database. 164 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:02,990 Any fire with acreage reported 165 00:07:02,990 --> 00:07:04,970 was considered a quote unquote fire, 166 00:07:04,970 --> 00:07:07,500 meaning we had 125,000 events 167 00:07:07,500 --> 00:07:12,460 over the period of 1992 to 2018. 168 00:07:12,460 --> 00:07:15,020 Note that you can see the darker colors on that map 169 00:07:15,020 --> 00:07:17,800 are the density or the number of fires reported. 170 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:19,670 There's a significant reporting to New York. 171 00:07:19,670 --> 00:07:22,253 So many of these fires are occurring in New York. 172 00:07:23,110 --> 00:07:24,380 So just keep that in mind 173 00:07:24,380 --> 00:07:26,130 as we look at some of the patterns. 174 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,030 So we can go back to those same questions, 175 00:07:29,030 --> 00:07:31,890 are extent, severity and frequency changing? 176 00:07:31,890 --> 00:07:33,690 Is fire becoming more frequent? 177 00:07:33,690 --> 00:07:35,820 Yes, regionally and in Connecticut, 178 00:07:35,820 --> 00:07:37,020 Mass, New York and Vermont, 179 00:07:37,020 --> 00:07:40,550 we're seeing more fires happening in a given year. 180 00:07:40,550 --> 00:07:42,720 Are they burning more overall area? 181 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:43,580 No, but we 182 00:07:43,580 --> 00:07:46,580 are seeing the average area getting smaller regionally, 183 00:07:46,580 --> 00:07:48,290 which is kind of interesting. 184 00:07:48,290 --> 00:07:50,060 And are they burning more area at once? 185 00:07:50,060 --> 00:07:54,300 So is the total extent of a single event getting bigger? 186 00:07:54,300 --> 00:07:56,420 No, we're not seeing any evidence of that. 187 00:07:56,420 --> 00:08:00,100 We do see some statistically significant decreases 188 00:08:00,100 --> 00:08:02,910 in Maine and Rhode Island and some small, 189 00:08:02,910 --> 00:08:06,150 but slight increases in Massachusetts and Vermont. 190 00:08:06,150 --> 00:08:10,430 So there's not a clear picture on whether we're burning, 191 00:08:10,430 --> 00:08:12,530 we're seeing fires getting larger overall. 192 00:08:14,590 --> 00:08:17,460 Looking into some of the data that underlies this, 193 00:08:17,460 --> 00:08:21,050 looking at the number of fires reported per year, 194 00:08:21,050 --> 00:08:24,330 we do have this increase that could be in part 195 00:08:24,330 --> 00:08:27,140 because more people are reporting prescribed burns 196 00:08:27,140 --> 00:08:30,650 through the system, but there's in general, 197 00:08:30,650 --> 00:08:33,420 we would say yes, there is an increase of fire occurring 198 00:08:33,420 --> 00:08:36,240 on the landscape regionally and in Connecticut, Mass, 199 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:37,290 New York and Vermont. 200 00:08:38,940 --> 00:08:41,833 So those are the statistically significant findings. 201 00:08:42,690 --> 00:08:46,520 There are some other really specific ones within those. 202 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,620 We looked at three other categories, as I mentioned. 203 00:08:50,620 --> 00:08:54,040 And there, in most cases, wasn't a significant 204 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,173 or a really stark trend. 205 00:08:57,030 --> 00:08:59,720 In drought, there are some slight increases 206 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,130 in the occurrence of abnormally dry conditions 207 00:09:02,130 --> 00:09:04,970 in Vermont, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. 208 00:09:04,970 --> 00:09:06,670 So we used U.S. drought monitor data 209 00:09:06,670 --> 00:09:10,580 to look at the presence of any portion of the state 210 00:09:10,580 --> 00:09:14,610 in any level of drought status from D0 to D4. 211 00:09:14,610 --> 00:09:17,100 And it's only a 20-year record for that. 212 00:09:17,100 --> 00:09:21,040 But we do see that there's this kind of increase 213 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,480 in number of weeks spent 214 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:27,380 in that lowest category across those four states. 215 00:09:27,380 --> 00:09:28,810 But at the regional scale, 216 00:09:28,810 --> 00:09:30,930 there's no clear trends in that right now 217 00:09:31,790 --> 00:09:33,613 using this type of analysis. 218 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:40,040 And the lack of any trend is very clear in the flood data. 219 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,560 We looked at flooding as any gauges 220 00:09:45,560 --> 00:09:47,850 that report levels above flood stage. 221 00:09:47,850 --> 00:09:50,920 And so, we used this a network of 179 stations 222 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,560 across the region for this 12-year period, 223 00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:58,830 and don't see any trend in either direction 224 00:09:58,830 --> 00:10:00,890 at the regional scale or even at the state scale. 225 00:10:00,890 --> 00:10:02,590 So it's really all over the place. 226 00:10:04,890 --> 00:10:07,830 And there are some trends in the data sources 227 00:10:07,830 --> 00:10:12,830 for native and long-present invasives in the region. 228 00:10:13,470 --> 00:10:15,937 We looked specifically at spruce budworm 229 00:10:15,937 --> 00:10:19,350 and forest tent caterpillar as endemic native pests 230 00:10:19,350 --> 00:10:20,780 that have cyclical outbreaks. 231 00:10:20,780 --> 00:10:23,700 We looked at hemlock woolly adelgid and browntail moth, 232 00:10:23,700 --> 00:10:25,710 which have an elementary disbar, 233 00:10:25,710 --> 00:10:28,900 which have been established in the region for some time, 234 00:10:28,900 --> 00:10:31,510 and newer arrivals, like Emerald Ash Borer. 235 00:10:31,510 --> 00:10:35,600 And there's just either not enough data 236 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,140 or the trends are not clear 237 00:10:38,140 --> 00:10:39,760 because of the different data sources 238 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:40,593 that were put together. 239 00:10:40,593 --> 00:10:44,280 So there are some trends, 240 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,160 but the interpretation is not straightforward, 241 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,000 so it's complicated, 242 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,300 but it's an area that we'll keep looking into. 243 00:10:51,290 --> 00:10:53,760 And so those are the kind of results 244 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,000 of the statistical analysis. 245 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,700 When we look at what we might do with this tool, 246 00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:01,670 we've kind of wrapped up this project work, 247 00:11:01,670 --> 00:11:06,560 we've done the initial steps that we had planned to do. 248 00:11:06,560 --> 00:11:07,820 What we want to look at next 249 00:11:07,820 --> 00:11:09,930 is what's gonna be valuable for the cooperative. 250 00:11:09,930 --> 00:11:12,140 And so we have a couple of potential next steps 251 00:11:12,140 --> 00:11:12,973 that we could do. 252 00:11:12,973 --> 00:11:16,920 Technically we could customizable charting. 253 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:18,870 The one thing you can't do to the site right now 254 00:11:18,870 --> 00:11:23,720 is look at, say, drought and fire next to each other. 255 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,010 But we do have that ability with the way 256 00:11:26,010 --> 00:11:27,100 that we structured everything. 257 00:11:27,100 --> 00:11:29,200 So is that something that we wanna add on? 258 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:35,090 We could do more work on the responses side of the work. 259 00:11:35,090 --> 00:11:38,110 We looked at available resources for say, 260 00:11:38,110 --> 00:11:40,380 stream macroinvertebrates or invasive plants, 261 00:11:40,380 --> 00:11:43,940 which can be a indicator of response to disturbance 262 00:11:43,940 --> 00:11:45,230 when it happens in forests. 263 00:11:45,230 --> 00:11:47,250 But the link between those 264 00:11:47,250 --> 00:11:50,920 that we could provide some sort of trend analysis 265 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:54,850 and monitoring framework for was a little bit harder. 266 00:11:54,850 --> 00:11:56,440 So those connections are really there, 267 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,330 but is there some way to drive research 268 00:11:58,330 --> 00:12:01,380 to kind of look at trend analysis 269 00:12:01,380 --> 00:12:04,880 and make that connection between drivers and responses? 270 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,260 And at its most basic level, 271 00:12:07,260 --> 00:12:09,910 we can continue to add resources 272 00:12:09,910 --> 00:12:11,420 to increase the breadth of the tools 273 00:12:11,420 --> 00:12:15,140 so that we are further documenting 274 00:12:15,140 --> 00:12:17,370 and sharing where people are monitoring these types 275 00:12:17,370 --> 00:12:18,310 of disturbance regimes 276 00:12:18,310 --> 00:12:21,230 so we have a better regional base to work from. 277 00:12:21,230 --> 00:12:24,870 So I think this does provide a framework 278 00:12:24,870 --> 00:12:29,630 for doing a very simple but initial look 279 00:12:29,630 --> 00:12:32,490 and context setting for what disturbance regime change 280 00:12:32,490 --> 00:12:34,040 might look like in the region. 281 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:35,770 There's certainly more work we could do 282 00:12:35,770 --> 00:12:38,110 to extend the record backward in time 283 00:12:38,110 --> 00:12:41,280 and do more sophisticated analysis. 284 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,790 But this initial tool and product allows us 285 00:12:43,790 --> 00:12:47,100 to communicate at very basic level, 286 00:12:47,100 --> 00:12:48,890 what's the extent, what's the severity, 287 00:12:48,890 --> 00:12:51,940 what's the frequency, and are those changing. 288 00:12:51,940 --> 00:12:54,410 So with that, I'll give a big thank you 289 00:12:54,410 --> 00:12:56,510 to our advisory committee shown here, 290 00:12:56,510 --> 00:12:58,410 both in name and organization. 291 00:12:58,410 --> 00:13:00,640 We had several meetings with these folks 292 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,040 and really benefited from their insight, 293 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:06,010 and guidance and help with interpretation. 294 00:13:06,010 --> 00:13:08,640 And as always appreciative of the funding 295 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,430 that we receive to make this work possible. 296 00:13:11,430 --> 00:13:13,720 So with that, I will end 297 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:15,540 and see if there are any questions you all 298 00:13:15,540 --> 00:13:16,993 might wanna have me address. 299 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:20,510 - [Nancy] There is a question. 300 00:13:20,510 --> 00:13:23,580 People can put the questions in the chat box 301 00:13:23,580 --> 00:13:26,290 or unmute themselves and ask Jim directly. 302 00:13:26,290 --> 00:13:28,973 Jim, there is a question in the chat box. 303 00:13:31,370 --> 00:13:33,410 Do you want me to read that to you? 304 00:13:33,410 --> 00:13:34,950 - I can read it. - [Nancy] Yeah. 305 00:13:34,950 --> 00:13:36,413 - Let me just pull up the chat. 306 00:13:41,590 --> 00:13:44,677 All right, "In young forest habitat management, 307 00:13:44,677 --> 00:13:45,827 "at disturbance dependent habitat, 308 00:13:45,827 --> 00:13:48,257 "we often say that natural disturbance is insufficient 309 00:13:48,257 --> 00:13:50,187 "to create enough new young forest for wildlife. 310 00:13:50,187 --> 00:13:51,837 "Therefore, we need active habitat management 311 00:13:51,837 --> 00:13:53,837 "to mimic disturbance on the landscape." 312 00:13:55,665 --> 00:14:00,665 So this analysis did not attempt 313 00:14:00,700 --> 00:14:03,120 to address how much should be happening, right? 314 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:05,930 That's a paleo ecological kind 315 00:14:05,930 --> 00:14:07,713 of historical reconstruction, right? 316 00:14:07,713 --> 00:14:11,570 What were these systems adapted to pre-colonial times 317 00:14:11,570 --> 00:14:13,990 for thousands of years and what was the landscape mix? 318 00:14:13,990 --> 00:14:16,090 And we know that it was different than it is now. 319 00:14:16,090 --> 00:14:18,020 It was much more of a mosaic. 320 00:14:18,020 --> 00:14:21,950 We've swung back towards afforestation, 321 00:14:22,990 --> 00:14:24,470 while also having urbanization. 322 00:14:24,470 --> 00:14:26,440 So there's kind of a hollowing out of that middle 323 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,820 of non-urbanized young forest. 324 00:14:29,820 --> 00:14:30,653 So I think that there 325 00:14:30,653 --> 00:14:33,350 is a lot of attention being paid to that. 326 00:14:33,350 --> 00:14:36,630 Actually, I'm excited to hear Juliet Barton's talk tomorrow, 327 00:14:36,630 --> 00:14:40,633 which will really go into that a lot more. 328 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,230 I don't know that I could say these findings tell you 329 00:14:45,230 --> 00:14:48,000 whether there's enough natural disturbance happening. 330 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:49,470 When you look at something like fire though, 331 00:14:49,470 --> 00:14:51,423 and we see this increasing number of fires 332 00:14:51,423 --> 00:14:53,920 and a lot more smaller fires happening, 333 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,660 I think that could also be a indication 334 00:14:57,660 --> 00:14:58,780 that you're getting some more 335 00:14:58,780 --> 00:15:00,520 of that gap creation through fire. 336 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,730 It might be a way that management and disturbance 337 00:15:02,730 --> 00:15:04,980 are coming together to create those openings. 338 00:15:08,220 --> 00:15:12,400 All right, well, thank you for attending and your time. 339 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,380 As I showed on the final slide, 340 00:15:14,380 --> 00:15:17,050 you can reach out to me or Pia with questions. 341 00:15:17,050 --> 00:15:20,890 The website is femc/disturbance. 342 00:15:20,890 --> 00:15:24,930 And please let me know if there's any other kind 343 00:15:24,930 --> 00:15:27,420 of directions that you think this product could go. 344 00:15:27,420 --> 00:15:30,330 'Cause as I mentioned, one of the things we're looking to do 345 00:15:30,330 --> 00:15:34,670 is see, we've done this analysis, we built this tool, 346 00:15:34,670 --> 00:15:36,270 is there a need to take it further? 347 00:15:36,270 --> 00:15:37,300 Is there a need to do any more 348 00:15:37,300 --> 00:15:39,740 on one of these disturbance drivers? 349 00:15:39,740 --> 00:15:44,040 That's certainly an option we have, finished the project, 350 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:45,460 but it doesn't mean we finished the work. 351 00:15:45,460 --> 00:15:47,640 So do reach out to your state partnership committees 352 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:49,240 or to me, if you're interested 353 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:51,193 in seeing this project go further. 354 00:15:53,617 --> 00:15:55,970 - [Nancy] Thanks, Jim, and thanks, everyone. 355 00:15:55,970 --> 00:15:56,803 - Thanks, all.