1 00:00:01,586 --> 00:00:05,024 So I work with Natural Heritage Inventory 2 00:00:05,024 --> 00:00:06,330 in Vermont Fish & Wildlife, 3 00:00:06,330 --> 00:00:09,150 and I work a lot with rare plants 4 00:00:09,150 --> 00:00:11,910 and mapping and monitoring them in our database 5 00:00:11,910 --> 00:00:15,841 across and within the boundaries of Vermont. 6 00:00:15,841 --> 00:00:18,900 And we're gonna be talking today about, 7 00:00:18,900 --> 00:00:21,720 specifically, about trends that we see in rare plants, 8 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,295 particularly around our historical extirpated 9 00:00:24,295 --> 00:00:28,620 (SH / SX designation). 10 00:00:28,620 --> 00:00:29,970 We'll talk about that more later. 11 00:00:29,970 --> 00:00:32,460 I'm not gonna read this whole slide to you, don't worry. 12 00:00:32,460 --> 00:00:35,670 But the summary of the slide is that 13 00:00:35,670 --> 00:00:40,670 botany accessibility has really increased over time, 14 00:00:42,179 --> 00:00:47,179 since a lot of our early documentation that we have 15 00:00:48,050 --> 00:00:52,735 of plant data is-- it's been moving-- 16 00:00:52,735 --> 00:00:56,670 it's been moving in a direction of community science. 17 00:00:56,670 --> 00:00:59,190 And I think a particularly pivotal point 18 00:00:59,190 --> 00:01:01,590 was really around 1999, 19 00:01:01,590 --> 00:01:06,590 when the Plant Conservation Volunteer Program was formed 20 00:01:06,690 --> 00:01:10,260 in working with the Native plant Trust, 21 00:01:10,260 --> 00:01:13,500 which at the time was called New England Wildflower Society. 22 00:01:13,500 --> 00:01:17,040 So now there're actually a large number of volunteers 23 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,830 who are actually collecting a lot of really great data. 24 00:01:19,830 --> 00:01:22,440 A lot of the greatest--a lot of the most detailed data 25 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:26,310 in our database comes from volunteers 26 00:01:26,310 --> 00:01:28,980 in collaboration with other organizations. 27 00:01:28,980 --> 00:01:33,321 And, and it's probably, at this point, 28 00:01:33,321 --> 00:01:34,260 about a third of our database. 29 00:01:34,260 --> 00:01:35,680 And that's a lot of the data 30 00:01:36,775 --> 00:01:37,860 that I'm gonna be sharing with you: 31 00:01:37,860 --> 00:01:40,560 sort of, trends that we're seeing in that. 32 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:44,922 So the nature of our data, 33 00:01:44,922 --> 00:01:46,860 we can't do controlled experiments, so 34 00:01:46,860 --> 00:01:51,240 we're looking at, you know, people's observations over time, 35 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,390 counting plants and whatnot, and yeah, 36 00:01:54,390 --> 00:01:56,730 and making observations of populations 37 00:01:56,730 --> 00:01:59,550 and how they're shifting there. 38 00:01:59,550 --> 00:02:01,745 There are increasing studies out there, 39 00:02:01,745 --> 00:02:04,500 finding ways to utilize trends like these, 40 00:02:04,500 --> 00:02:06,510 but they're mostly at city and county levels. 41 00:02:06,510 --> 00:02:08,260 We haven't really had the resources 42 00:02:09,222 --> 00:02:11,550 to do complex data analysis, 43 00:02:11,550 --> 00:02:16,550 or publish anything at state level, and we want--yeah. 44 00:02:17,346 --> 00:02:19,680 Yeah, sorry, the city and town things are-- 45 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,140 or, city and county, are outside of Vermont, really. 46 00:02:22,140 --> 00:02:24,346 So we wanna be able to summarize patterns we're seeing, 47 00:02:24,346 --> 00:02:28,343 because that can help us understand research questions 48 00:02:28,343 --> 00:02:30,120 that we need to be asking. 49 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:34,020 So, probably a lot of you remember this little friend 50 00:02:34,020 --> 00:02:39,020 who became really big news last June, I guess: 51 00:02:39,540 --> 00:02:40,970 This is a small whorled Pogonia, 52 00:02:40,970 --> 00:02:45,970 and the small whorled Pogonia was refound. 53 00:02:46,247 --> 00:02:48,660 It was actually in a new place in Chittenden County 54 00:02:48,660 --> 00:02:52,110 from the original place documented in 1902. 55 00:02:52,110 --> 00:02:57,110 But it really captured the imagination across the public, 56 00:02:57,170 --> 00:02:59,700 as you, as you can see from this. 57 00:02:59,700 --> 00:03:01,510 The one that really made me laugh is 58 00:03:02,377 --> 00:03:05,781 "Orchid Rediscovered In Vermont Thanks To a Smartphone App," 59 00:03:05,781 --> 00:03:07,565 (laughter) 60 00:03:07,565 --> 00:03:08,423 because obviously the smartphone app 61 00:03:09,599 --> 00:03:11,982 didn't actually find the plant. 62 00:03:11,982 --> 00:03:14,099 It was actually a real human. 63 00:03:14,099 --> 00:03:16,011 (laughter) 64 00:03:16,011 --> 00:03:16,950 So actually--and so that, on the left, 65 00:03:16,950 --> 00:03:20,910 that's Tom Doubleday who's a retired Greenhouse Manager, 66 00:03:20,910 --> 00:03:23,223 I think, from--who's worked at UVM, yeah, 67 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,750 who stumbled on the plant at one point, 68 00:03:27,750 --> 00:03:29,370 well, he didn't stumble, 69 00:03:29,370 --> 00:03:30,967 but he noticed this plant and thought, 70 00:03:30,967 --> 00:03:32,550 "Gee, this is a plant I don't recognize." 71 00:03:32,550 --> 00:03:36,387 So he took a picture and he posted the plant on iNaturalist. 72 00:03:36,387 --> 00:03:38,850 And actually Eleanor Ray is the first person who noticed, 73 00:03:38,850 --> 00:03:41,670 who is actually one of our Plant Conservation Volunteers. 74 00:03:41,670 --> 00:03:44,820 And she identified the plant on iNaturalist 75 00:03:44,820 --> 00:03:48,420 and then John Gange, who's on the right, also went out 76 00:03:48,420 --> 00:03:51,962 and they were able to relocate the plant later. 77 00:03:51,962 --> 00:03:53,400 And John is the one who took these 78 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:55,593 really really captivating, stunning pictures 79 00:03:55,593 --> 00:03:58,023 that really, I think, inspired a lot of people. 80 00:03:59,128 --> 00:04:04,128 So that's what a lot of people have heard about this plant. 81 00:04:07,590 --> 00:04:10,060 And you may have heard in the last few weeks 82 00:04:11,010 --> 00:04:13,500 about another plant that also is in the news-- 83 00:04:13,500 --> 00:04:15,330 maybe a little smaller splash: 84 00:04:15,330 --> 00:04:16,833 This is the purple crowberry. 85 00:04:17,763 --> 00:04:19,660 Um, it was refound on Mt. Mansfield after, 86 00:04:19,660 --> 00:04:23,853 well, the last report on Mt. Mansfield was from 1908. 87 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:30,440 And anyway, this is a really really exciting find, too. 88 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,770 And this was found by Liam Ebner, 89 00:04:34,770 --> 00:04:37,443 who's an Adirondack Summit Steward. 90 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:41,970 But it was actually on a Summit Steward trip, 91 00:04:41,970 --> 00:04:43,470 with a lot of Summit Stewards. 92 00:04:46,872 --> 00:04:47,790 So I'm gonna just talk a little bit 93 00:04:47,790 --> 00:04:49,830 about SH and SX designations. 94 00:04:49,830 --> 00:04:54,300 So SH (state historic), um--those two plants are SX-- 95 00:04:54,300 --> 00:04:56,673 they're presumed extinct or extirpated. 96 00:04:57,690 --> 00:05:00,690 That means that we really think 97 00:05:00,690 --> 00:05:02,550 that they're not there anymore. 98 00:05:02,550 --> 00:05:03,990 Like, lots of people have looked. 99 00:05:03,990 --> 00:05:06,350 And in those two cases and actually a few others 100 00:05:06,350 --> 00:05:08,760 in the last decade, they have still been there. 101 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:10,500 So, at this point we only have six plants 102 00:05:10,500 --> 00:05:13,290 left on that SX list in Vermont. 103 00:05:13,290 --> 00:05:17,340 But we still have 86 taxa on the state historic list, 104 00:05:17,340 --> 00:05:21,093 which means they've been missing for more than 25 years. 105 00:05:22,500 --> 00:05:25,080 But it doesn't mean that we're, maybe, less confident 106 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,683 that they're gone, such as that sedge, which we refound. 107 00:05:29,814 --> 00:05:31,614 But, uh, we'll talk about that next. 108 00:05:33,181 --> 00:05:35,446 Um, so you've all heard, maybe, 109 00:05:35,446 --> 00:05:38,760 about those, like, bigger exciting finds, but who has heard 110 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,502 about Crataegus pisifera, the pea hawthorn--anyone? 111 00:05:42,502 --> 00:05:44,752 (laughter) 112 00:05:45,900 --> 00:05:49,047 Only people in Natural Heritage are into this. 113 00:05:49,047 --> 00:05:52,623 This journal article just came out this month. 114 00:05:53,479 --> 00:05:54,897 Crataegus pisifera, or sometimes 115 00:05:54,897 --> 00:05:58,200 Crataegus succulenta var. pisifera, 116 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,840 depending on how you want to regard this plant. 117 00:06:00,840 --> 00:06:03,510 The pea hawthorn, supposedly because these fruits 118 00:06:03,510 --> 00:06:06,090 are supposed to be the size of peas, 119 00:06:06,090 --> 00:06:09,603 or so said Ezra Brainerd in, like, 1900 120 00:06:09,603 --> 00:06:13,110 when he collected the type of specimen in Cornwall, VT. 121 00:06:13,110 --> 00:06:17,070 However, it turns out, when Art Gilman was out, 122 00:06:17,070 --> 00:06:19,320 he went back to the place 123 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,390 where the original specimen was collected, 124 00:06:21,390 --> 00:06:24,660 and he actually found some really old shrubs growing there, 125 00:06:24,660 --> 00:06:26,220 and a few about nine mile down the road. 126 00:06:26,220 --> 00:06:29,550 This is a global endemic species, as far as we understand, 127 00:06:29,550 --> 00:06:32,545 only known from that, sort of, 9-kilometer radius. 128 00:06:32,545 --> 00:06:33,720 [Student] That's awesome! 129 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:35,665 And--yeah, I know! 130 00:06:35,665 --> 00:06:37,665 (laughter) 131 00:06:37,665 --> 00:06:39,426 So, um, kind of exciting.... 132 00:06:39,426 --> 00:06:42,030 Maybe that's all I'll say about that, except 133 00:06:42,030 --> 00:06:45,210 it's not shocking that people have not really been.... 134 00:06:45,210 --> 00:06:47,640 We don't have very much documentation of hawthorns 135 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:48,473 for a hundred years. 136 00:06:48,473 --> 00:06:52,110 Art Gilman has put a lot of effort in in the last 20 years 137 00:06:52,110 --> 00:06:54,180 to relocate a lot of the ones 138 00:06:54,180 --> 00:06:56,130 that were documented a hundred years ago. 139 00:06:56,130 --> 00:06:58,170 So, great for hawthorn diversity. 140 00:06:58,170 --> 00:07:00,840 So, and here's another one, just want of many: 141 00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:03,540 This is the boreal aster. 142 00:07:03,540 --> 00:07:06,947 This was unreported from Vermont until 1926. 143 00:07:06,947 --> 00:07:10,740 And Jacob Penner was--I was out with Jacob Penner, 144 00:07:10,740 --> 00:07:12,630 who's another Plant Conservation Volunteer, 145 00:07:12,630 --> 00:07:15,699 and he was like, "Hey, is that the aster we're looking for?" 146 00:07:15,699 --> 00:07:17,321 (laughter) 147 00:07:17,321 --> 00:07:18,521 So, anyway, still there! 148 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,847 And, just, a lot of our plants that are historic, 149 00:07:23,847 --> 00:07:26,910 some of them are pretty obscure, as well. 150 00:07:26,910 --> 00:07:29,209 So, this is rusty flatsedge, Engelmann's flatsedge... 151 00:07:29,209 --> 00:07:34,113 they both were historical, but refound in the last 10 years. 152 00:07:34,113 --> 00:07:35,310 That last one, on the right, 153 00:07:35,310 --> 00:07:39,180 was actually found abundantly in the last 10 years, 154 00:07:39,180 --> 00:07:42,394 but we don't have any historical record. 155 00:07:42,394 --> 00:07:44,880 We're just fairly confident that they've always been here. 156 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:46,560 But I think they are getting more abundant. 157 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,270 So that's--with some species, like these, 158 00:07:48,270 --> 00:07:50,370 are, like, drought annuals of drawdown shores. 159 00:07:50,370 --> 00:07:53,250 We have to be there in the fall when the water's drawn down. 160 00:07:53,250 --> 00:07:57,058 And so a lot of our historical records are pretty low, 161 00:07:57,058 --> 00:07:58,950 are pretty poor on them. 162 00:07:58,950 --> 00:08:01,770 We don't have very much, just to start with. 163 00:08:01,770 --> 00:08:04,777 So, I did a graph of how often--the question is, 164 00:08:04,777 --> 00:08:07,341 "How often are we re re-finding plants, versus losing them?" 165 00:08:07,341 --> 00:08:11,610 Because in this era of global climate change, 166 00:08:11,610 --> 00:08:14,507 you would expect we'd be losing more than we're re-finding. 167 00:08:14,507 --> 00:08:16,800 And that's actually still not the case, 168 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:18,543 which is kind of cool. 169 00:08:20,310 --> 00:08:22,275 And there's a lot of reasons for that, which I'll go into. 170 00:08:22,275 --> 00:08:25,778 So, these blue lines are the number of taxa that-- 171 00:08:25,778 --> 00:08:28,740 we're just talking about vascular plants-- 172 00:08:28,740 --> 00:08:31,350 changed from state historic, 173 00:08:31,350 --> 00:08:33,030 or if they were extirpated, to extant. 174 00:08:33,030 --> 00:08:36,461 So we refound, we've refound populations, 175 00:08:36,461 --> 00:08:39,510 after they were found historically. 176 00:08:39,510 --> 00:08:41,970 And you can see it's generally gone up. 177 00:08:41,970 --> 00:08:44,430 I'm sure I missed some, 178 00:08:44,430 --> 00:08:47,283 but this is my best assessment using our database. 179 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:51,258 There's sort of a trend line that goes fairly up 180 00:08:51,258 --> 00:08:52,680 in the last decade or so, 181 00:08:52,680 --> 00:08:54,210 versus these ones that changed 182 00:08:54,210 --> 00:08:57,210 from extant to, like, that we declared these ones 183 00:08:57,210 --> 00:08:59,580 historical or extirpated. 184 00:08:59,580 --> 00:09:02,040 And the reason there's these large spikes is because 185 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,100 we did some really large data reviews some years. 186 00:09:05,100 --> 00:09:07,173 So, it's kind of jerky. 187 00:09:08,610 --> 00:09:10,200 Not really clear to me-- I don't know 188 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,657 if we can really assess a trend line from that, 189 00:09:12,657 --> 00:09:15,060 but you can see that there are 190 00:09:15,060 --> 00:09:16,470 a lot more plants that we're finding 191 00:09:16,470 --> 00:09:18,120 than that we're losing at the moment. 192 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,970 So, why would this be? 193 00:09:20,970 --> 00:09:23,980 Why are all these plants increasing and recovering? 194 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:30,322 Well, actually, one thing I should say is 195 00:09:30,322 --> 00:09:33,944 eleven of of these plants that we found are hawthorns. 196 00:09:33,944 --> 00:09:35,724 So, like, literally nobody was looking, as far as we know, 197 00:09:35,724 --> 00:09:37,510 for the last hundred years. 198 00:09:37,510 --> 00:09:38,609 (laughter) 199 00:09:38,609 --> 00:09:40,110 And a lot of them are still there. 200 00:09:40,110 --> 00:09:42,892 And we have a lot of hawthorns in our state; 201 00:09:42,892 --> 00:09:45,810 we have about 32 species documented in Vermont. 202 00:09:45,810 --> 00:09:47,913 They're all native species, except one. 203 00:09:49,110 --> 00:09:49,943 So that's one thing. 204 00:09:49,943 --> 00:09:52,260 Also, like, maybe about eleven of these 205 00:09:52,260 --> 00:09:55,140 are species that were missing for about 30 years. 206 00:09:55,140 --> 00:09:57,930 So there's, like, you know, "Oh, they're gone," 207 00:09:57,930 --> 00:09:59,920 and then five years later, or two years later, 208 00:09:59,920 --> 00:10:02,180 we find a new population... 209 00:10:03,630 --> 00:10:05,430 and I'll talk about that later, too. 210 00:10:06,810 --> 00:10:08,047 So, I guess the question is here, 211 00:10:08,047 --> 00:10:11,917 "Why are we re-finding so many state historical plants?" 212 00:10:11,917 --> 00:10:12,750 "Or are we?" 213 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,230 So, I mean, I think we can speak to the fact 214 00:10:16,230 --> 00:10:18,810 that plants are incredibly resilient and adaptable. 215 00:10:18,810 --> 00:10:20,010 So there is something going on, 216 00:10:20,010 --> 00:10:21,240 where these plants are actually 217 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,433 doing some really amazing things to stay in the landscape. 218 00:10:24,433 --> 00:10:26,580 I think our landscapes are also more diverse, 219 00:10:26,580 --> 00:10:29,490 So they're not, they're not always 220 00:10:29,490 --> 00:10:31,490 doing the same thing in the same places. 221 00:10:33,578 --> 00:10:35,333 They, there's also delay in extirpations, right? 222 00:10:36,538 --> 00:10:38,088 Because the plants have to go missing, 223 00:10:38,088 --> 00:10:40,200 and then we have to wait 25 years and still not find them 224 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,468 for them to actually go on this list. 225 00:10:42,468 --> 00:10:43,530 So, it's pretty delayed, by the time 226 00:10:43,530 --> 00:10:46,443 that they end up on that list to start with. 227 00:10:48,788 --> 00:10:53,160 And then there's a delay in detections of declines. 228 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:54,600 So, when we're just talking about declines, 229 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,670 it takes us a long time to even notice 230 00:10:56,670 --> 00:10:58,230 that plant populations are declining. 231 00:10:58,230 --> 00:11:01,740 That's why this value--this data that we're getting 232 00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:05,160 from so many volunteers is really valuable; 233 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,810 having all this 'revisit data' to these same populations. 234 00:11:09,810 --> 00:11:11,960 Because sometimes it can take 20, or, 235 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:12,840 often it can take it can take 40 years, 236 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:14,520 if you're visiting every five or ten years. 237 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,757 Because if they're going like this, 238 00:11:16,757 --> 00:11:18,900 then it can take a while to detect the trend line 239 00:11:18,900 --> 00:11:23,900 out of all of the geographic and temporal variations. 240 00:11:26,329 --> 00:11:27,162 So, yeah. 241 00:11:28,096 --> 00:11:29,670 And then, partly, we don't know what changes to look for. 242 00:11:29,670 --> 00:11:31,370 So some of what I wanna talk about 243 00:11:32,248 --> 00:11:33,384 is some of the changes that we are seeing, 244 00:11:33,384 --> 00:11:34,590 so we even know what to look for. 245 00:11:34,590 --> 00:11:37,110 Because I think it's kind of an emerging science, you know? 246 00:11:37,110 --> 00:11:41,940 How do plant populations change in the present-day? 247 00:11:41,940 --> 00:11:46,940 So, this is one plant that we feel pretty confident is gone. 248 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:48,540 And it's just in the last few years 249 00:11:48,540 --> 00:11:50,340 that we changed the species to historic. 250 00:11:50,340 --> 00:11:52,083 This is the fairy slipper orchid. 251 00:11:53,443 --> 00:11:55,290 Um, there aren't that many pictures from Vermont, 252 00:11:55,290 --> 00:11:56,910 but I found one, by Garrett Crow, 253 00:11:56,910 --> 00:11:58,760 from a Vermont population in Peacham. 254 00:12:01,715 --> 00:12:04,260 There were once 22 populations; they were in cedar swamps. 255 00:12:04,260 --> 00:12:06,990 The cedar swamps--they're mostly all still there. 256 00:12:06,990 --> 00:12:08,580 But we see a similar sort of trend 257 00:12:08,580 --> 00:12:12,690 in pretty much all of the populations across Vermont. 258 00:12:12,690 --> 00:12:14,640 And they're also already historical 259 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,223 in New York and New Hampshire, as well. 260 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,720 So, we don't know why they're declining. 261 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:26,075 But what we can see is that they seem to be ahead 262 00:12:26,075 --> 00:12:27,856 of a number of other orchids 263 00:12:27,856 --> 00:12:30,030 (and maybe mycoheterotrophic plants, in general) 264 00:12:30,030 --> 00:12:34,020 that we have, maybe, half of orchid species, 265 00:12:34,020 --> 00:12:35,550 particularly ones with a northern affinity. 266 00:12:35,550 --> 00:12:38,043 We're seeing similar patterns of declines, 267 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,673 but maybe on a slower trajectory than this. 268 00:12:42,570 --> 00:12:45,450 But we are seeing really concerning patterns 269 00:12:45,450 --> 00:12:47,190 in our database. 270 00:12:47,190 --> 00:12:49,207 Some of them, the more we look, some of them, it turns out 271 00:12:49,207 --> 00:12:52,057 "Oh, that's not, you know, we're just over-, you know--." 272 00:12:53,234 --> 00:12:55,881 So, some of that is, often we don't have enough populations 273 00:12:55,881 --> 00:12:56,910 for it to be a statistically significant decline, 274 00:12:56,910 --> 00:12:59,880 so we're not analyzing that, and sometimes we're wrong. 275 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,970 But sometimes it turns out that they really are declines. 276 00:13:02,970 --> 00:13:07,970 So yeah, this is a paper that just came out this year. 277 00:13:14,190 --> 00:13:15,960 Robert Bertin and others 278 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,121 looked at Franklin County, Massachusetts-- 279 00:13:19,121 --> 00:13:21,780 so just across the southern border of Vermont-- 280 00:13:21,780 --> 00:13:26,103 and they did an analysis of town data. 281 00:13:27,210 --> 00:13:28,533 Like, so, data by town, 282 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:33,120 of, like, "How many towns are these plants missing from, 283 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,550 after 2010 versus before?" 284 00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:37,980 The really interesting thing I wanna point out to you-- 285 00:13:37,980 --> 00:13:41,040 and of course this is anecdotal, based on 286 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:43,178 like, my analysis of our database, but-- 287 00:13:43,178 --> 00:13:45,952 those red ones are ones where the decline 288 00:13:45,952 --> 00:13:47,400 is consistent with our data. 289 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,860 So, our data also shows some really steep declines, 290 00:13:49,860 --> 00:13:51,600 or at least implies some really steep declines, 291 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:53,260 that I'm fairly confident about 292 00:13:54,150 --> 00:13:56,250 for a huge number of those red ones. 293 00:13:56,250 --> 00:13:58,350 The yellow ones are ones that could well be, 294 00:13:58,350 --> 00:13:59,250 but we would need to say-- 295 00:13:59,250 --> 00:14:01,260 we have things pointing in that direction, 296 00:14:01,260 --> 00:14:03,030 but I don't think, like-- 297 00:14:03,030 --> 00:14:05,850 our data's not really convincing enough yet, 298 00:14:05,850 --> 00:14:08,940 based on, like--we just don't have as much data. 299 00:14:08,940 --> 00:14:12,404 And then the blue ones, the blue dots I just pointed at, 300 00:14:12,404 --> 00:14:15,057 are all the ones that are mycoheterotrophic. 301 00:14:15,057 --> 00:14:17,010 Now, like, there aren't that many mycoheterotrophic-- 302 00:14:17,010 --> 00:14:18,660 like, plants that really depend on fungi 303 00:14:18,660 --> 00:14:21,753 for a big part of their life cycle like that, 304 00:14:23,220 --> 00:14:25,350 are not actually the majority of plants, 305 00:14:25,350 --> 00:14:28,533 but they are on this list...which is really interesting. 306 00:14:29,610 --> 00:14:32,040 Especially because it's so consistent with those-- 307 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,770 oh, and also, all the ones that aren't underlined, 308 00:14:34,770 --> 00:14:36,540 it's mostly just because they're not rare in Vermont, 309 00:14:36,540 --> 00:14:38,430 so we're not tracking them. 310 00:14:38,430 --> 00:14:40,290 There's really none on there that are rare 311 00:14:40,290 --> 00:14:43,023 that we really have any data on, so we wouldn't know. 312 00:14:45,785 --> 00:14:49,050 This is one of the ones at the top of the other list, 313 00:14:49,050 --> 00:14:50,580 and this, in all of New England, 314 00:14:50,580 --> 00:14:53,060 is showing really dramatic declines. 315 00:14:53,060 --> 00:14:56,250 And we historically had--we've had, like, hundreds 316 00:14:56,250 --> 00:14:58,950 of collections and population documentations. 317 00:14:58,950 --> 00:15:00,950 We actually thought this was historical; 318 00:15:02,551 --> 00:15:03,620 they'd been last seen in 1990. 319 00:15:04,761 --> 00:15:08,241 And then in 2017 Matt Peters found two more populations. 320 00:15:08,241 --> 00:15:11,280 So we can say, "Hey, they're doing great," but actually, 321 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:13,950 there's still only two populations that we know of. 322 00:15:13,950 --> 00:15:16,920 And we aren't--I don't think 323 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,113 we're greatly overlooking the species. 324 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:22,990 And that's another mycoheterotroph. 325 00:15:24,219 --> 00:15:26,947 Uh, still the largest risk, I think, to a lot of our plants 326 00:15:26,947 --> 00:15:31,947 that we really understand, is loss of habitat. 327 00:15:32,610 --> 00:15:37,610 This is Colchester. This is the 1973 topo underlay. 328 00:15:38,130 --> 00:15:40,797 This is our--the green are our Natural Heritage-- 329 00:15:40,797 --> 00:15:43,170 those are our rare plants, as they're mapped 330 00:15:43,170 --> 00:15:46,473 as of a few years ago, over, like, 1973. 331 00:15:48,630 --> 00:15:52,320 And then this is just a few years ago. Um, aerial photo. 332 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,750 So you can see how much the habitat has changed, 333 00:15:54,750 --> 00:15:56,640 and how the plants are just really cut off 334 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:58,260 and isolated from each other. 335 00:15:58,260 --> 00:16:00,900 So even though the plants may be there, 336 00:16:00,900 --> 00:16:03,550 a lot of plants, including these three on the bottom, 337 00:16:04,763 --> 00:16:06,690 they're surviving, they haven't been extirpated, 338 00:16:06,690 --> 00:16:08,490 but they're really clearly declining. 339 00:16:08,490 --> 00:16:11,760 And essentially we can do a lot of conservation work 340 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:16,142 and we try to map them and protect them where they are, 341 00:16:16,142 --> 00:16:19,170 but we're still under-resourced to prevent declines, 342 00:16:19,170 --> 00:16:23,640 even if we can prevent their extirpation in the short-term. 343 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:25,920 Lupine is another one, where we only have one population 344 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,413 left within that map region. 345 00:16:30,450 --> 00:16:35,280 And lastly, I was gonna talk about climate change. 346 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,280 A lot of focus on climate change has been on temperature, 347 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,332 at least in this region. 348 00:16:40,332 --> 00:16:43,590 Often, we're always seeing global warming, but-- 349 00:16:43,590 --> 00:16:46,350 and that that may still be a big effect, but-- 350 00:16:46,350 --> 00:16:48,570 what we're seeing for a lot of plants is-- 351 00:16:48,570 --> 00:16:50,103 This is Jerry Jenkins' data, 352 00:16:51,903 --> 00:16:54,233 that report that he submitted in, around, 2010. 353 00:16:54,233 --> 00:16:59,030 What we're seeing is that the climate data are-- 354 00:16:59,030 --> 00:17:02,250 I guess, we're seeing a lot more effects 355 00:17:02,250 --> 00:17:03,750 from changes in hydrology, 356 00:17:03,750 --> 00:17:05,400 and it might be that they're easier to detect, 357 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,020 but those are the ones that we're seeing more 358 00:17:09,073 --> 00:17:11,730 in our rare plant population changes. 359 00:17:11,730 --> 00:17:14,190 In this case, he's documenting hot dry summers, 360 00:17:14,190 --> 00:17:16,770 and this is what he calls a 'stairstep decline,' 361 00:17:16,770 --> 00:17:18,660 which is something I hadn't really thought to look for 362 00:17:18,660 --> 00:17:19,533 before that. 363 00:17:20,473 --> 00:17:22,410 But we may actually be seeing in more of our populations. 364 00:17:22,410 --> 00:17:25,470 Essentially, these are the long-life plants. 365 00:17:25,470 --> 00:17:29,610 You can get a hot--sorry, a dry and hot--summer, 366 00:17:29,610 --> 00:17:32,100 and the population can plummet, and the pop-- 367 00:17:32,100 --> 00:17:33,810 the plants have the ability to recover 368 00:17:33,810 --> 00:17:35,490 if you give them enough time, 369 00:17:35,490 --> 00:17:37,240 but as they're starting to recover, 370 00:17:38,146 --> 00:17:42,420 if the stressor is getting closer and closer together, 371 00:17:42,420 --> 00:17:43,980 then you can end up with a stairstep, 372 00:17:43,980 --> 00:17:46,263 rather than just a decline and a recovery. 373 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,400 And this pattern has continued. 374 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,470 This is actually Matt Peters' continued survey, 375 00:17:52,470 --> 00:17:55,200 more recently, and you can see that the stairsteps 376 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:56,500 have continued to go down. 377 00:17:57,540 --> 00:17:58,740 This is our last population. 378 00:17:58,740 --> 00:18:01,410 There were once four of them in Vermont, that we knew of. 379 00:18:01,410 --> 00:18:03,453 But this is the last remaining one, 380 00:18:04,308 --> 00:18:07,923 and probably won't be in the next couple decades. 381 00:18:10,140 --> 00:18:11,883 Um, how much time do I have? 382 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:14,697 You can answer some questions, if you want. 383 00:18:14,697 --> 00:18:16,370 Okay, I'm gonna skip over this. 384 00:18:16,370 --> 00:18:18,210 But there's a lot of really interesting hydrology stuff. 385 00:18:18,210 --> 00:18:21,930 Essentially, a lot of unprecedented stuff in Lake Champlain, 386 00:18:21,930 --> 00:18:24,480 which has caused some really major declines 387 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,700 that may be, like, the first stairsteps that we're seeing 388 00:18:26,700 --> 00:18:29,283 with species like dunegrass and beach pea. 389 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,060 And we're seeing it also on our rivers. 390 00:18:33,060 --> 00:18:35,100 Essentially, summer flooding is a lot different 391 00:18:35,100 --> 00:18:36,730 than winter flooding. 392 00:18:36,730 --> 00:18:37,680 A lot of these plants on the shores 393 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:39,230 are adapted to winter flooding; 394 00:18:40,322 --> 00:18:42,120 and summer flooding is just, sort of, unprecedented 395 00:18:42,120 --> 00:18:43,920 in the way that it's happening. 396 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:45,537 Plants do go extinct. 397 00:18:45,537 --> 00:18:46,590 The last thing I'll say is-- 398 00:18:46,590 --> 00:18:48,720 this is a little unconventional, but my critique 399 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,120 of this conference is we often don't spend enough time-- 400 00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:53,770 I feel like we spend a lot of time in our heads here, 401 00:18:55,133 --> 00:18:57,600 and I just wanna give us a chance to, like, take a breath, 402 00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,670 because a lot of this information's really heavy. 403 00:18:59,670 --> 00:19:02,460 Like, change can take a lot of toll on our body, 404 00:19:02,460 --> 00:19:04,410 especially when we don't talk about it. 405 00:19:05,825 --> 00:19:08,019 So these are the things I've been trying to do lately, 406 00:19:08,019 --> 00:19:09,653 just in terms of figuring out ways 407 00:19:09,653 --> 00:19:11,053 to resist, accept and adapt, 408 00:19:11,940 --> 00:19:13,047 for all the creatures that we care about, 409 00:19:13,047 --> 00:19:14,583 but also for ourselves. 410 00:19:15,606 --> 00:19:18,703 And especially adapting in that, like, we need creativity 411 00:19:18,703 --> 00:19:22,740 and we need diversity, which means having conversations 412 00:19:22,740 --> 00:19:24,540 about equity and inclusion and justice 413 00:19:24,540 --> 00:19:28,057 also in our environmental work. The end! 414 00:19:29,429 --> 00:19:33,929 -(laughter) -(applause) 415 00:19:40,757 --> 00:19:43,606 Okay, questions? Sorry, I covered a lot. Yeah? 416 00:19:43,606 --> 00:19:46,720 Do you think the trends that you were observing 417 00:19:48,476 --> 00:19:52,593 in declaring things extinct versus rediscovering them 418 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:58,530 is reflective of our lack of willingness to declare, 419 00:19:58,530 --> 00:20:02,250 or, our hesitancy to declare something extinct, 420 00:20:02,250 --> 00:20:05,160 and the controversy that can often ensue? 421 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:06,150 Coming from the bird world, 422 00:20:06,150 --> 00:20:07,297 I'm think of the ivory-billed woodpecker, 423 00:20:07,297 --> 00:20:10,080 which was a huge you-know-what show.... 424 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:11,280 -Yep! -(laughter) 425 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,680 -So, like, yeah. -Absolutely. Yeah. 426 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,540 I mean, I don't think we've actually added 427 00:20:15,540 --> 00:20:18,300 much at all to the SX list. 428 00:20:18,300 --> 00:20:19,870 We just keep taking plants off 429 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,850 because we never cease to be surprised. 430 00:20:23,850 --> 00:20:25,707 It's amazing how much you can, like-- 431 00:20:26,918 --> 00:20:28,734 especially, like, Alpine's zones, we think of as 432 00:20:28,734 --> 00:20:30,660 like, people have spent so much time botanizing 433 00:20:30,660 --> 00:20:32,310 up in the alpine zones. 434 00:20:32,310 --> 00:20:34,950 You would think that we couldn't find any plants 435 00:20:34,950 --> 00:20:36,990 that we didn't know about, but we still do. 436 00:20:36,990 --> 00:20:41,280 So it's really, uh, yeah, it is true. 437 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:42,930 We're hesitant to put things on that list, 438 00:20:42,930 --> 00:20:44,433 to put an X on that list. 439 00:20:45,270 --> 00:20:46,103 Yeah? 440 00:20:46,103 --> 00:20:48,499 Aaron, is there any thought with the whole lawns to, 441 00:20:48,499 --> 00:20:51,420 you know, No-Mow May, and pollinators, 442 00:20:51,420 --> 00:20:52,770 of looking at, like, Colchester, 443 00:20:52,770 --> 00:20:54,990 and talking about, you know, cultivating their lawns 444 00:20:54,990 --> 00:20:56,896 for these species that have no way of jumping 445 00:20:56,896 --> 00:20:59,766 and moving space to space to space? 446 00:20:59,766 --> 00:21:01,560 It would be a great initiative for that one area, 447 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,920 for those plants that are, it's very clear, 448 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,100 that that kind of conversion could make a difference. 449 00:21:08,100 --> 00:21:11,670 Yeah, that is a much longer conversation 450 00:21:11,670 --> 00:21:12,503 than we could have now. 451 00:21:12,503 --> 00:21:15,801 But I think, yeah, I think talking about how homeowners 452 00:21:15,801 --> 00:21:17,670 how people who are living in the area 453 00:21:17,670 --> 00:21:21,282 can be involved and can engage in that cause. 454 00:21:21,282 --> 00:21:22,115 Yeah, it's really important. 455 00:21:23,969 --> 00:21:25,440 We should probably wrap it up, 456 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,450 so people can get to the next topic, 457 00:21:27,450 --> 00:21:29,385 but thank you very much. 458 00:21:29,385 --> 00:21:31,635 (applause)