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Okay, thanks.

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Great to be here and
awesome to share the stage

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with Liz and Bob, that's a treat,

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and thank you for all the
great work that you do.

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So I'm gonna share some
research that we've been doing,

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just actually finished
up a round with funding

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from Forest Ecosystem
Monitoring Cooperative,

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which I'd like to share with you.

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So it's looking at
parcelization trends in Vermont.

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And so there's a couple
key terms to focus on.

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We're not talking about
outright forest loss,

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that's estimated by the Forest Service

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through their FIA analysis.

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So like in Vermont,

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there's an estimate we're losing over

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12,000 forests outright from

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forest land conversion every year.

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Then there's sort of forest fragmentation.

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The impact of that
development has on the ground,

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which you can see here,

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when the roads and the
driveways and houses go in

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we have forest fragmentation.

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What we're tracking is parcelization.

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We're measuring the creation
of more and more parcels

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and through the subdivision process.

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And that typically can lead
to disjointed ownership

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and parcels leading to more
management complications.

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How development is done on those parcels

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can impact ecological or
economic integrity of the parcels

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for resource considerations.

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So we've done four
rounds of this research.

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We put out multiple reports.

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I'm gonna back into a website to show you

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where you can read the reports

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based on the different
years that we've analyzed.

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We've done this using Grand List in data

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that's collected by, for
property tax purposes,

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but there are land use classifications

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that are part of the property
tax collection process.

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And we put those into categories

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in order to see land
use change on the ground

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and what's happening.

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So we really opened this up
to a much larger analysis

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of the Grand List data from 2004 to 2016.

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That was kind of our phase
three report that we put out.

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And then most recently
what we've published

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is cleaning up the data
a bit and now focusing

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on the year's 2005 to
2020 as a study period.

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I'd like to again acknowledge
that this was primarily funded

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by FEMC and we had a host of partners,

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some of whom are in the room here,

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but a collaborative effort between VNRC,

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the Agency of Natural
Resources, the tax department,

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people like Deb Brighton and
Brian Voight, researchers,

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Vermont Center for Geographic Information

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and folks from UVM.

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And there is a executive
summary that's available,

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which I'll show you about in a minute.

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So getting to the trends themselves.

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So in Vermont,

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I guess like this data I look
at is like, kind of depends.

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If you look at the cup is
half full or half empty

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and I would say like the cup
being half full side of it

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is that we still have a
lot of land in Vermont

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that's represented in large parcels.

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So 50 acres was kind of an
arbitrary delineation we made

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just to say "What's a large parcel?"

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And you know,

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over 70% of the privately
owned acreage in Vermont

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is represented in parcels over 50 acres.

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So still a lot of opportunity
to maintain intact parcels.

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Again, this is focusing on private land.

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That's what the Grand List calculates.

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We're not looking at public land trends.

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Cup half empty or trending towards that

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is based on the classifications.

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Woodland, which is
undeveloped forest land is,

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we're seeing a pretty rapid
decline in representation.

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This does not mean the
forest land is gone,

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it just means that it's been reclassified.

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It means there's been a dwelling, a house,

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that's been put on that parcel

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and it's no longer considered
to be undeveloped woodland.

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And then over time we know
that there can be impacts

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as that development
occurs on the landscape

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and how it occurs, you
know, really matters.

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We're losing farmland too,raw
sort of bulk farmland,

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and we're seeing the
residential category increasing.

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And we measured this and we saw, you know,

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over a 19% decrease in woodland
over this 15% time period.

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I do wanna say that some of that

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is land going into public
ownership, which is, you know,

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a good trend from a
fragmentation perspective

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or an ecological perspective.

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How much we weren't
quite able to tease out

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but we are confident as a team

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that it's not an overwhelming amount.

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You know, we could focus on it being

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a certain percentage of it, but it's not.

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The overwhelming dynamic is that,

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and maybe I'll show this one to you first,

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is that there's a really
strong correlation

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to the uptick in residential category

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and the decline in woodland.

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Okay, so we were able to
find an association there.

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I'll just go back to this slide

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because this really just
gives you the acreage numbers

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so you can see sort of where
we're at in these categories.

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This is a very general way of looking at

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some key categories,
Residential, Woodland, Farmland,

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and then Other which
has a lot of different

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miscellaneous sort of categories in it.

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But then we looked at large parcels too

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and the trends were the same.

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So we saw really the woodland category

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going down noticeably for
large parcels as well.

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So, similar trend whether we look at

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all parcels or the larger parcels.

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Farmland going down too,

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and we measure this over a period of time

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so you can see where
there's been more pressure.

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This just gives you kind
of the representation

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of these categories in Vermont.

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And so, you know, residential
actually has the most acreage

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associated with it
across these categories.

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And so that doesn't mean the land again

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is just all residential.

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It's again the classification
that the listers use.

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But what this can show you is that

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over this 15 year period

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we saw a noticeable
decline in the percentage

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of undeveloped woodland that's
represented in the state.

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For example, 25.6% in 2005

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now down to, getting close to to 21%.

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So, you know, if we do the math

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and we keep on on this
trend every 15 years,

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at some point we're gonna start

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to run up against some
really concerning trends.

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And then we looked at sort
of the woodland category

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and we looked at it across
the counties for example.

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And I think there were at
least like four counties

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that had a 30% or higher
decrease across a 15 year period.

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So then we start like in
certain geographic areas,

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we're really seeing a noticeable change.

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And so what that means
just on the landscape

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could be sort of a different examination,

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a spatial examination.

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This is sort of just aggregating

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the numbers from the Grand List.

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Okay, so then acreage,
where's the acreage?

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There's still a lot of acreage

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as I told you before, in large parcels,

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this is just breaking it down into some

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different categories for
you to consider here.

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So there's still, as you can see,

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a lot of the acreage
in the larger parcels.

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But that's starting to
decline as we would expect

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from parcelization and subdivision

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and we're replacing it
where we see the uptick

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in the smaller parcels.

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And then, so it's
interesting to see, you know,

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that the number of parcels
in the two to five acre

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or five to 10 acre size category,

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that's where we saw really
like the fastest growth.

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And that could be, 'cause that's like

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minimum lot sizes in zoning, you know?

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A certain, and there's
a lot of conversations

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happening in the state right
now with the housing crisis

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is how do we create more density

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and how do we create smaller lots?

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And some towns have higher lot, you know,

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minimum lot requirement

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and lots of conversations
about "Is that a good thing?"

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'Cause we want large parcels

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to be enrolled in current use for example.

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But then if that's the minimum lot size

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and we keep on doing that at,

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you know, 25 acres over time then

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are we having the density that we want?

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So that's a whole other
tangent we can go off on.

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But it's just interesting to quantify

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where we're seeing the growth.

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And this was really interesting

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'cause we were able to quantify that

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parcels less than 50 acres in size

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increased over 19,612 parcels

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that had a new dwelling on
them over the study period.

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This is really interesting 'cause we have,

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we have a narrative in Vermont

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that we don't have population growth.

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We did see some during COVID,

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we saw in migration happening from Covid,

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some climate migration happening

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and that was a noticeable uptick

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which maybe is starting to level off now.

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But in general we don't
have population growth.

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We do have second home development.

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We do have homes being built in Vermont.

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Not enough. We do have a housing crisis.

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But I think this is
just really interesting

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when you look at the numbers

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that we do have through subdivision,

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we do have new dwellings
going in on the land.

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Okay, so what we,

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the sort of like the holy grail

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that we've been chasing for a long time

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is how do we actually take this data

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00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:04,230
and look at it spatially too
so that we can understand

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are the subdivisions happening
in the right locations,

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or where are they happening?

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And so working with Deb Brighton,

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she had the idea that
we can actually look at

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00:09:13,890 --> 00:09:16,380
property transfer tax returns

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as a better way to
actually link up spatially

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00:09:19,230 --> 00:09:20,700
where these parcels are located.

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Now that we have digital
parcel maps in the state,

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00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:24,720
the tax department's been working with us

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to actually improve
the integration of that

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as a new data tool.

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We did a case study in Addison County.

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We looked at a three year period,

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we were able to map where the
subdivisions occurred, okay?

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And out of 18,000 parcels, more and more,

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there were 125 parcels were subdivided

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00:09:44,250 --> 00:09:46,740
over a three year period, okay?

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This shows the location of them.

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And then we overlaid that
with the regional planning map

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and we were able to kind of look at

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the designated land uses.

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And I think about 68% of the subdivisions

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00:10:02,070 --> 00:10:04,140
were in areas that were considered either

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00:10:04,140 --> 00:10:07,530
conservation or rural
or agricultural lands.

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Okay?

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00:10:08,363 --> 00:10:10,020
So the overwhelming
majority of the subdivisions

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00:10:10,020 --> 00:10:13,950
are in zones that are really
for more resource management

236
00:10:13,950 --> 00:10:18,180
or conservation than where we
want our concentrated growth.

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Then we overlaid it with
the forest block analysis

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00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,130
that the Agency of Natural
Resources has done.

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00:10:23,130 --> 00:10:25,320
Anybody wanna throw out a
guess on how many of these

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00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,270
parcels or subdivisions were in

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00:10:27,270 --> 00:10:29,823
intact forest blocks or intersecting?

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00:10:30,809 --> 00:10:31,642
[Man] 98.

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00:10:31,642 --> 00:10:32,760
[Jamey] 98?

244
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:34,023
You're close.

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00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:36,843
Any other guesses?

246
00:10:38,250 --> 00:10:42,343
-I guess I gave it away there.
-(people laughing)

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91%.

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00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,550
So, I don't need to tell you all

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the concern about this from a trend

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and we all know why this is happening

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and why people want to
live in our forest areas.

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It's an attractive place to be

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00:11:01,530 --> 00:11:03,363
subdividing and building homes.

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00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,450
Okay, so I wanna take a couple minutes

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00:11:06,450 --> 00:11:08,820
just to then back into
the parcelization tools,

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00:11:08,820 --> 00:11:11,220
which allows you a way to analyze the data

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that's in here and show you
where you can find the reports.

258
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Okay, great.

259
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So this is, this is available,

260
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if you just go to VNRCs website

261
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and you go to the Forest
and Wildlife program page,

262
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you can back into the
parcelization website

263
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or it's vtforesttrends.vnrcorg/home.

264
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Recommend you just go to VNRC website

265
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or Google "Vermont Parcelization".

266
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So what we have is our homepage

267
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and then we have a tool
called the Data Explorer

268
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and VCGI Steve Sharp
helped us to design this.

269
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And what this allows you to do

270
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is examine the data by
toggling different years

271
00:11:54,750 --> 00:11:56,460
that you may be interested in looking at.

272
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So what I'm gonna do
right now is I'm gonna say

273
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I'm interested in the whole study period.

274
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I'm gonna back out 2016,

275
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I'm gonna look statewide across Vermont

276
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and I'm going to,

277
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so you have different options here.

278
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You can look at the change in parcel size

279
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or the parcels that have dwellings.

280
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I'm gonna look at acres
and parcels by type.

281
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Okay.

282
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And here's the trends
that we are looking at

283
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or talking about at a broad scale.

284
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Okay.

285
00:12:29,730 --> 00:12:31,860
But then you could look
at it at the county level,

286
00:12:31,860 --> 00:12:33,240
the town level if you're doing

287
00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,580
some work in a certain region.

288
00:12:35,580 --> 00:12:36,990
And then I'm just gonna show you that

289
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there's different ways to explore,

290
00:12:38,460 --> 00:12:40,560
like percent change over time

291
00:12:40,560 --> 00:12:42,360
if that's what you're interested in.

292
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:43,590
And again, you can toggle through

293
00:12:43,590 --> 00:12:46,740
different geographic
regions in different years.

294
00:12:46,740 --> 00:12:49,120
You can explore the metrics

295
00:12:51,750 --> 00:12:53,463
by year and geography.

296
00:12:56,100 --> 00:12:58,717
And then we have a final tool here,

297
00:12:58,717 --> 00:13:00,780
"Explore change over time
through a line graph".

298
00:13:00,780 --> 00:13:03,990
So just lots of different
ways to look at the data.

299
00:13:03,990 --> 00:13:05,910
Then if you're interested
in reading the reports

300
00:13:05,910 --> 00:13:07,800
where we've analyzed what all this means

301
00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:09,060
and what the trends are showing us

302
00:13:09,060 --> 00:13:11,850
and if you're interested in
seeing the recommendations,

303
00:13:11,850 --> 00:13:14,250
the land use policy recommendations,

304
00:13:14,250 --> 00:13:15,900
the data management recommendations

305
00:13:15,900 --> 00:13:18,600
we're making around parcelization

306
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,670
and studying parcelization.

307
00:13:20,670 --> 00:13:23,940
The most recent executive
summary is available right here

308
00:13:23,940 --> 00:13:26,640
that analyzes the most
recent data we have.

309
00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,310
And then you can see that
there's a number of other

310
00:13:29,310 --> 00:13:31,413
of our previous reports in here.

311
00:13:33,180 --> 00:13:34,780
And then you could also

312
00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:38,580
very quickly just let
you know that we have

313
00:13:38,580 --> 00:13:40,500
a webinar you could watch,

314
00:13:40,500 --> 00:13:42,570
which kind of talks about this more.

315
00:13:42,570 --> 00:13:44,538
And then if you're interested in actually

316
00:13:44,538 --> 00:13:47,340
downloading the raw data and using it,

317
00:13:47,340 --> 00:13:49,380
we've made that available as well.

318
00:13:49,380 --> 00:13:52,680
And then if you wanna find
out more about the project,

319
00:13:52,680 --> 00:13:54,690
you can go to the About page.

320
00:13:54,690 --> 00:13:57,000
So with that, I think my time is up,

321
00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:00,288
and be happy to take any questions.

322
00:14:00,288 --> 00:14:03,455
(audience applauding)

323
00:14:06,450 --> 00:14:08,430
-Chris,
-(indistinct speech)

324
00:14:08,430 --> 00:14:10,110
thank you for raising this Chris.

325
00:14:10,110 --> 00:14:13,410
And just let folks know that
the phase two study that we did

326
00:14:13,410 --> 00:14:14,430
that's available up here,

327
00:14:14,430 --> 00:14:17,340
we actually combed through
like, 22 case study towns,

328
00:14:17,340 --> 00:14:19,590
reviewed their subdivision regulations

329
00:14:19,590 --> 00:14:22,800
and we looked at whether
the amount of subdivisions

330
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,860
were triggering Act
250, and as an exercise,

331
00:14:25,860 --> 00:14:28,440
1% of the subdivisions,

332
00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,530
and there were a lot of
subdivisions that we measured

333
00:14:31,530 --> 00:14:35,320
were large enough to trigger
Act 250, and another 1%...

334
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:38,520
You know, overall maybe 10% of the acreage

335
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,250
was still under some kind
of continuing jurisdiction.

336
00:14:41,250 --> 00:14:42,960
There had been a large project,

337
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,570
but subdivisions in Vermont
are not being designed

338
00:14:45,570 --> 00:14:46,950
to trigger Act 250 right now.

339
00:14:46,950 --> 00:14:50,850
In fact, most people develop
to not trigger Act 250.

340
00:14:50,850 --> 00:14:53,610
So there are a lot of
conversations right now happening

341
00:14:53,610 --> 00:14:56,343
about the fact that,

342
00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,340
we're not, Act 250 really
isn't playing a role

343
00:14:59,340 --> 00:15:01,200
in looking at subdivisions and yet our,

344
00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,840
we've got this sprawl
happening in our forest lands

345
00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,630
and we need to have some
kind of functioning criteria

346
00:15:06,630 --> 00:15:09,300
for forest to do good
site design in forest.

347
00:15:09,300 --> 00:15:11,070
And we'll see there's gonna be a big

348
00:15:11,070 --> 00:15:13,620
effort attention this
year to try and overhaul

349
00:15:13,620 --> 00:15:15,600
and comprehensively reform Act 250.

350
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,570
And personally I hope that

351
00:15:18,570 --> 00:15:21,420
fragmentation criteria
that's passed the legislature

352
00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:23,460
three times but hasn't become law yet,

353
00:15:23,460 --> 00:15:27,870
can magically make it across
the finish line this year.

354
00:15:27,870 --> 00:15:31,170
But we're also looking at
ways to streamline Act 250

355
00:15:31,170 --> 00:15:34,830
where we wanna have designated
growth and not make it easier

356
00:15:34,830 --> 00:15:37,443
to incentivize development
in the right locations.

357
00:15:39,210 --> 00:15:40,233
Any other questions?

358
00:15:45,900 --> 00:15:47,947
Thank you. Thank you for having me.

359
00:15:47,947 --> 00:15:51,197
(audience applauding)