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- So this is Sara Wisner

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and she is a graduate student

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with the University of
Massachusetts Amherst.

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And she's gonna be presenting her talk,

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Utilizing Climate Change Refugia

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for Climate Change Adaptation

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and Management in the Northeast.

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So I'll turn it over to you, Sara.

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- [Sara] Hello everyone,
and thank you for coming.

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Like Naomi said, today I'll be talking

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about Utilizing Climate Change Refugia

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for Climate Change Adaptation

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and Management in the Northeast.

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So just a little background.

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Climate change will
have significant impacts

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in Northeastern United
States and its biodiversity.

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Future projections show an increase

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in frequency of heat waves,

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droughts, winter temperatures,
severe precipitation events

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and a rise in sea levels.

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Changes in climate will have
devastating ecological effects,

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including mismatches of
biology, habitat fragmentation,

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changes in survival, growth
and reproduction rates.

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There's likely to be a shift
in community composition

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as well as the influx of
invasive species and disease.

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Management plants need to
adapt to changing environments

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to preserve and protect
climate vulnerable species.

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These species are susceptible
to changes in climate

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and often cannot adapt to these changes

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in an efficient time.

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One of the primary focus of
climate change adaptation

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could be protecting managing
climate change refugia,

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which are areas buffered by climate change

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and enable the persistence
of valued physical,

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ecological and cultural resources.

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Climate change refugia
can also have a role

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in transition strategies

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as they can remain buffered
from climate change

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for rain shifting species.

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So my research uses a
translational ecology approach.

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Translational ecology is an approach

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which ecologists, stakeholders
and decision-makers

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work together to develop research

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that addresses the
sociological, ecological

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and political context of
an environmental problem.

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It can help improve the way
that ecologists and stakeholders

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communicate about a project

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and it allows stakeholders to gain insight

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in the whole process and the
caliber of research created.

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This is key in ensuring
the development of science

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and ensuring the effective formulation

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of policy and decision-making.

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Also, because stakeholders are involved

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in the decision-making process,

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this allows transparency in
how things are developed.

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Along with a translational
ecology approach,

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I followed the Climate Change
Refugia Conservation Cycle

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from Morelli et al. 2016 to
accomplish my objectives.

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Similar to step one, my first objective

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was to identify climate vulnerable species

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within the Northeast region
of the National Park Service.

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My next objectives were
to map and calculate

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climate change refugia
for priority species

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within those park units,

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that'd be step four of the cycle.

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In addition, mapping transition areas,

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that would also be step four,
and step five through seven,

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it would be incorporated
in my last objective

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of co-producing climate adaptation actions

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that the National Park Service
staff and partners could use

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to protect resources and
conserve key species.

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So my research was focused
on the focal resources

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prioritized for the
National Park Service staff

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in the Northeast region.

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This is composed of four
imagery and monitoring networks,

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or I&M, and those are Northeast Temperate,

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the Northeast Coastal & Barrier,

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Eastern Rivers & Mountains
and the Mid-Atlantic.

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The red on the screen is the
Northeast National Park Units

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and they're considerably smaller

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than the rest of the United States.

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So the aim of this project was
to produce the actual science

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and improve management plans

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by using this translational
ecology approach.

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The original intent was
to hold these workshops

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in the geographic south and north

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of the National Parks
Service Northeast Region

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in order to maximize accessibility

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for National Park Service staff.

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However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic,

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both workshops were
held entirely via Zoom.

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This project, we rely heavily

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on interpersonal communication.

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And even though I moved
to a virtual platform,

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I think it was successful in its practice

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and also likely increased participation

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in both numbers and geographic spread.

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Now, although it was
challenging, we learned as a team

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to adapt to these new conditions

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as we need to adapt our management
plans to climate change.

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We matched our Park Service staff

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and other relevant
stakeholders on March 16th

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and March 19th of 2020 to
refine planning and objectives

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for this project

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and to work with the
group to identify a list

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of focal species to best support

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the parks' management needs.

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We initiated the meeting

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by starting with brief
introductions of all parties present

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involved by presentations
by experienced researchers

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and resource managers.

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So during these meetings,

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we separate the rambling
into break out groups

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and asked the question,

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"What should we map refugia for?"

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After these discussions,

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the group entered the top
priorities in Mentimeter

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forming these word clouds to the right.

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As you see, there's a variety
of different resources

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and priority species in those bubbles.

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So the focal resources that
received the highest votes

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from the Mentimeter
are listed to the right

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with their updated title

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developed through
internal group discussion

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separated by each workshop date.

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The workshop participants
were self-distributed

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into different breakout groups afterwards

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based on one of those
focal resource topics.

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And they had to answer
the following questions:

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"What is the specific focus?

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How to apply climate
change refugia results

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to ongoing or future management actions?

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And what data and
partnerships are available?"

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Participants in each group described data

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and important researchers, partners

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and potential management actions to use

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to formulate refugia maps
to conserve these species.

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During these breakout
groups, they also discussed

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which species should be models for.

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A list of species was
formulated and it was finalized

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by our National Park Service
collaborator, Aaron Weed.

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Species in the list were
highlighted as priority

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from the stakeholders

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of climate change refugia
map synthesized for,

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they were comprised from
these three categories:

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wildlife refugia, cold-water
refugia and forest refugia.

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Today, I'll only be talking
about wildlife refugia

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because that was my
incorporation into this project.

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And through these workshops,

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we're able to accumulate
invaluable data partnerships

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and available resources.

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So the species that I
was in charge of modeling

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climate change refugia for

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were black-throated green warbler,

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grasshopper sparrow,
blue-spotted salamander,

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marbled salamander, Jefferson salamander,

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shrubby five-fingers, common bearberry,

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highland rush and Bebb's sedge.

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So there's a variety of different species

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from birds, salamanders
and different shrubs.

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I gathered currents data
from iNaturalist GBIF

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and they were between the
years of 2000 to 2020.

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They only included
research-grade observations

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with a spatial accuracy
of up to 800 meters.

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And for my bird species,

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I only gathered observations
between May to September

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to omit for a winter migration.

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I use climate data

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from Designing Sustainable
Landscapes Project,

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and I looked for a variety
of non-climate data,

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such as aspect tree canopy.

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Once I knew what my predictor
and climate variables

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were best for each species
and which method will result

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in the highest modeling predictability,

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I used the SDM package to create

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my species distribution
models for the year 2010

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and then projected them into the future

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under two different climate
scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5

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to get the habitat
suitability for the year 2080

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for each one of my species.

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From there, I looked for areas
that had high suitability

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from current 2010 to future time,

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which would be considered refugia.

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Then I looked at areas

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that have low habitat suitability in 2010

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but became suitable in the future,

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those would be transition areas.

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Those areas are considered
where species are expected

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to move outside of the ranges

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under the effects of climate change.

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So afterwards, I took my
refugia maps and tread notes

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to the National Park Service's park units

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and included a five kilometer buffer north

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to make statistical
summaries more meaningful

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for very small parks.

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From that, I also had to break
down the Appalachian trail

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into different units on
the National Park Service

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facing down to hock units.

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So they're treated differently.

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And also it's important to note

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that the Appalachian trail range

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exceeds outside of the
national Northeast region

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showing this little area.

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I calculated the percentage
for each park unit,

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the amount of refugia
for in that one park.

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So I'm gonna be going
through several maps,

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I won't be going through all my species

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just because of time,

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but this is for the
black-throated green warbler,

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and it shows the 2010
habitat suitability map

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and the 2080 habitat
suitability map for RCP 8.5.

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It shows the difference
between the two years,

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this green one value is
considered refugia for the future,

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and this white would be a
decrease in habitat suitability.

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So you can see between the two scenarios,

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black-throated green warbler will have

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more suitable habitat further north,

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and there'll be an absence

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of habitat suitability in the south.

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This is another view of it,

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but isolating refugia
and the transition zones

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in this gray scale map is
habitat suitability of 2010.

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So you can kind of see how these species

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are moving over time.

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This black right here is what
used to be suitable habitat,

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but no longer is during the
year 2080 at RCP scenario 8.5.

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You can see that in the
coastal region of Maine,

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there's a lot of refugia
and transition zones,

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and there's some also in Massachusetts

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in this area as well.

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But as you can see that this
was once unsuitable habitat

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in the Northern-most part of Maine

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and it has become a little
bit more of a transition

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where there will be suitable
habitat in the future.

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For a grasshopper sparrow, the
same principle applies here.

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You can see that there's
actually gonna be an absence

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of suitable habitat in the future.

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There's not as much refugia as compared

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to the black-throated green warbler,

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but there is starting to be
more suitable habitat up north.

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It's not quite a refugim yet,

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but it might be in later scenarios.

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Same view, but of just
refugia in a transition.

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There's not as much refugia compared

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to the black-throated green warbler,

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but there is a lot of transitional,

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especially along the coastal areas

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of the Northeast region

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and a little bit throughout Maine.

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There's also an area over here

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that still has a transition zone

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and a little bit of refugia.

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And as you can see, this
whole area to the right

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has lost suitability.

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So just looking really quickly,
these are the park units

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within the Northeast region,

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and it's just broken down to each species.

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There's this five kilometer buffer around.

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It's not very clear, but you can see

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that there's different
refugia within the zone.

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00:12:08,860 --> 00:12:11,370
Same for blue-spotted salamander.

262
00:12:11,370 --> 00:12:12,540
Just quickly going over it,

263
00:12:12,540 --> 00:12:15,840
you could see that there's
refugia more towards the north

264
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,120
and there's an absence
of habitat suitability

265
00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:19,757
in the southern region.

266
00:12:19,757 --> 00:12:22,260
And you can see that habitat suitability

267
00:12:22,260 --> 00:12:23,513
has depleted a lot.

268
00:12:26,450 --> 00:12:29,530
Different view, there's
a lot of transition,

269
00:12:29,530 --> 00:12:31,553
only a little bit of refugia.

270
00:12:34,490 --> 00:12:36,690
Just trying to go through
this really quick.

271
00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,210
The most drastic one was
from marbled salamander.

272
00:12:41,210 --> 00:12:44,540
There's actually an increased
amount of habitat suitability

273
00:12:44,540 --> 00:12:47,690
in the future and
increased rate of refugia

274
00:12:47,690 --> 00:12:49,453
compared to the other species.

275
00:12:51,370 --> 00:12:54,690
Again, transition a huge
amount and a little bit of,

276
00:12:54,690 --> 00:12:57,220
well, not a little bit,
but a lot of refugia.

277
00:12:57,220 --> 00:12:59,700
Sorry, I have to go through
these pretty quickly now.

278
00:12:59,700 --> 00:13:00,630
But I just have a variety of species

279
00:13:00,630 --> 00:13:02,703
that you can ask me about later.

280
00:13:05,300 --> 00:13:07,780
So after we complete our data products,

281
00:13:07,780 --> 00:13:09,190
we conducted another workshop

282
00:13:09,190 --> 00:13:11,340
and we showcased all of these products

283
00:13:11,340 --> 00:13:14,380
to their National Parks
Service stakeholders

284
00:13:14,380 --> 00:13:15,793
and other researchers.

285
00:13:17,070 --> 00:13:20,810
And they were really, highly happy

286
00:13:20,810 --> 00:13:21,980
with all of the results,

287
00:13:21,980 --> 00:13:24,510
and they wanted to
continue on with this work,

288
00:13:24,510 --> 00:13:25,380
and they were very expressive

289
00:13:25,380 --> 00:13:27,900
about continuing
communication with one another

290
00:13:27,900 --> 00:13:29,970
in building future partnerships

291
00:13:29,970 --> 00:13:31,110
outside of the national park

292
00:13:31,110 --> 00:13:33,210
where these species are predicted to move.

293
00:13:35,690 --> 00:13:36,710
So it is seen

294
00:13:36,710 --> 00:13:40,240
that translational ecology
approaches work well

295
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:41,670
and they identify data gaps

296
00:13:41,670 --> 00:13:46,053
and they help expand research already,

297
00:13:47,060 --> 00:13:49,360
or expand research practices.

298
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,290
And it is a key action to
increase habitat connectivity

299
00:13:52,290 --> 00:13:55,803
for freshwater, terrestrial
and marine systems.

300
00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,560
Percentages of climate change refugia vary

301
00:13:59,560 --> 00:14:02,513
for each park unit and
between RCP scenarios.

302
00:14:03,810 --> 00:14:07,530
There's also an overarching
trend of species

303
00:14:07,530 --> 00:14:09,570
moving towards the Northern region

304
00:14:09,570 --> 00:14:12,190
and this could be contributed
to colder temperatures

305
00:14:12,190 --> 00:14:13,323
moving more north.

306
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,560
There are certain model limitations.

307
00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:20,820
I did not incorporate biotic interactions,

308
00:14:20,820 --> 00:14:23,710
such as competition and predation.

309
00:14:23,710 --> 00:14:25,970
It also kept these habitats in constants

310
00:14:25,970 --> 00:14:28,120
based on the 2010,

311
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:29,710
and they also don't incorporate land-use

312
00:14:29,710 --> 00:14:32,690
and human disturbance and invasive species

313
00:14:32,690 --> 00:14:34,393
and disease dynamics.

314
00:14:35,530 --> 00:14:38,380
And oftentimes because of
these small parks is...

315
00:14:38,380 --> 00:14:40,810
Sometimes, the view is kind of course,

316
00:14:40,810 --> 00:14:43,683
and the pixels extend
outside of the park unit.

317
00:14:46,590 --> 00:14:48,210
So the next steps of my project

318
00:14:48,210 --> 00:14:50,440
would be to implement steps six and seven

319
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,283
of the Climate Change
Refugia Conservation Cycle.

320
00:14:55,150 --> 00:14:57,023
Because the cycle is never ending,

321
00:14:57,950 --> 00:14:59,760
it allows revisions to
make the most accurate

322
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:01,070
and dependable science.

323
00:15:01,070 --> 00:15:02,930
In addition, keeping an
open line communication

324
00:15:02,930 --> 00:15:04,160
with all partners involved

325
00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:05,980
and package all of that data

326
00:15:05,980 --> 00:15:08,993
and resources that we have
created for them to use.

327
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,830
So in conclusion, mapping
climate change refugia

328
00:15:13,830 --> 00:15:16,750
could be an important
tool in helping preserve

329
00:15:16,750 --> 00:15:20,330
and project species from the
effects of climate change.

330
00:15:20,330 --> 00:15:22,020
Likewise, the translational ecology

331
00:15:22,020 --> 00:15:24,180
is an important framework
to listed priorities,

332
00:15:24,180 --> 00:15:25,860
engage national research managers

333
00:15:25,860 --> 00:15:28,480
and ultimately implement
the best available science

334
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,090
in creation of refugia maps.

335
00:15:31,090 --> 00:15:32,710
This project has allowed the formulation

336
00:15:32,710 --> 00:15:33,990
of climate change refugia maps

337
00:15:33,990 --> 00:15:35,370
that can help the National Park Service

338
00:15:35,370 --> 00:15:36,930
better manage their time

339
00:15:36,930 --> 00:15:38,490
and allocate funds towards projects

340
00:15:38,490 --> 00:15:40,810
that are vital in
protecting and preserving

341
00:15:40,810 --> 00:15:42,343
species and resources.

342
00:15:43,530 --> 00:15:45,690
I hope these data products and cooperation

343
00:15:45,690 --> 00:15:48,020
hopefully is a catalyst in
pursuing research grants

344
00:15:48,020 --> 00:15:49,910
and other management practices.

345
00:15:49,910 --> 00:15:52,510
In addition, I hope that from this study,

346
00:15:52,510 --> 00:15:54,990
managers and stakeholders
are inspired to continue

347
00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:56,150
to build a relationship

348
00:15:56,150 --> 00:15:58,733
in which the best science is created.

349
00:16:01,030 --> 00:16:04,480
So thank you, and if you
would like more information,

350
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,640
you can visit climaterefugia.org,

351
00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:09,630
and you can always email me

352
00:16:09,630 --> 00:16:11,830
and I'll be available
to take questions now.

353
00:16:14,356 --> 00:16:16,357
- So there's a question
in the chat which is,

354
00:16:16,357 --> 00:16:17,820
"Thanks Sara, very interesting.

355
00:16:17,820 --> 00:16:20,320
Are your other maps that
we didn't get to see

356
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,947
available on the website?"

357
00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:25,480
- They're not available
on the website yet.

358
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,150
This was part of my masters thesis

359
00:16:28,150 --> 00:16:31,410
so I'm gonna be submitting that on Monday,

360
00:16:31,410 --> 00:16:35,300
and we will be uploading
everything to that website,

361
00:16:35,300 --> 00:16:37,580
and also it'll be available
on the National Park Service

362
00:16:37,580 --> 00:16:40,670
to data storage along with other maps

363
00:16:40,670 --> 00:16:42,230
that I didn't get to present

364
00:16:42,230 --> 00:16:45,423
because there's many, many
maps that I've created.

365
00:16:46,650 --> 00:16:48,103
Thank you for that question.

366
00:16:49,558 --> 00:16:50,391
- And the other one is,

367
00:16:50,391 --> 00:16:52,830
"Could you define 'buffered
from climate change?'

368
00:16:52,830 --> 00:16:55,680
Use that in your definition of refugia."

369
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:56,540
- Sure.

370
00:16:56,540 --> 00:16:58,550
So they're areas there are...

371
00:17:00,490 --> 00:17:02,240
I can actually show you real quick.

372
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,550
So this is just a kind of...

373
00:17:07,550 --> 00:17:08,970
I don't think we need
to show because of time.

374
00:17:08,970 --> 00:17:12,540
But there're areas that can create

375
00:17:12,540 --> 00:17:15,993
certain micro-climates are canopy-covered,

376
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:20,750
can create a buffer
for local temperatures,

377
00:17:20,750 --> 00:17:22,290
maximums and minimums of the year.

378
00:17:22,290 --> 00:17:25,050
So different tree cover
over different rivers

379
00:17:25,050 --> 00:17:27,940
can cause a decrease in temperature

380
00:17:27,940 --> 00:17:30,580
causing cold water to stay cold

381
00:17:30,580 --> 00:17:33,460
or to keep below a
certain amount of degrees.

382
00:17:33,460 --> 00:17:37,970
So there're different geographic aspects

383
00:17:37,970 --> 00:17:40,720
that can be sheltering

384
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,973
from different effects of climate
change, so different snow.

385
00:17:46,570 --> 00:17:51,340
Complex terrains can
decrease the temperature

386
00:17:51,340 --> 00:17:54,880
of around the area because
it's harboring more cold air,

387
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:55,943
things like that.

388
00:17:56,820 --> 00:18:00,950
Sorry if it's unclear.

389
00:18:00,950 --> 00:18:02,400
- [Naomi] We have one more quick question.

390
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:03,700
We are pretty much out of time,

391
00:18:03,700 --> 00:18:06,030
but, "What SDM did you use,

392
00:18:06,030 --> 00:18:08,040
presence only or presence absence?

393
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,460
Did you use land cover and
habitat suitability modeling?"

394
00:18:11,460 --> 00:18:12,720
- [Sara] Sure.

395
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,400
So I only have presence data,

396
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:19,793
but I did add in pseudo
absences into my modeling.

397
00:18:20,650 --> 00:18:21,800
And for each species,

398
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,580
they all had different types
of predictor variables.

399
00:18:25,580 --> 00:18:28,470
So I used different products

400
00:18:28,470 --> 00:18:33,030
from the sunny stamina
landscapes for my climate,

401
00:18:33,030 --> 00:18:35,500
but for each species, I incorporated...

402
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,630
Some included aspect, some
included forest canopy,

403
00:18:39,630 --> 00:18:41,550
it just depended on the actual species

404
00:18:41,550 --> 00:18:42,830
'cause they modeled them

405
00:18:42,830 --> 00:18:44,650
to see which one would
be the highest predictors

406
00:18:44,650 --> 00:18:48,650
for each one without having
too much collinearity

407
00:18:48,650 --> 00:18:49,983
between the variables,

408
00:18:51,030 --> 00:18:53,443
so it just varied for each species.

409
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,720
I didn't use an LCD, so
national land cover data,

410
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:00,720
but I did look into it.

411
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,040
- [Naomi] Awesome, thank you Sara,

412
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,550
and congratulations on being almost done.

413
00:19:04,550 --> 00:19:05,383
- Thank you.