1 00:00:06,310 --> 00:00:10,480 - It's my pleasure to introduce Tessa McGann, 2 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:12,930 a graduate student at the University of Vermont's 3 00:00:12,930 --> 00:00:17,400 Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources. 4 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,480 Tessa's presenting climate change adaptation 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,410 among urban and rural foresters 6 00:00:23,410 --> 00:00:25,740 in the Northeastern United States, 7 00:00:25,740 --> 00:00:29,233 an assessment of motivations, practices and barriers. 8 00:00:32,890 --> 00:00:33,850 - Good afternoon. 9 00:00:33,850 --> 00:00:35,070 I'm Tessa McGann 10 00:00:35,070 --> 00:00:36,880 and I'm presenting some of the findings 11 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,370 from my master's research at UVM 12 00:00:39,370 --> 00:00:40,410 on adaptive management 13 00:00:40,410 --> 00:00:42,730 in the Northeastern United States: 14 00:00:42,730 --> 00:00:44,800 Common strategies and motivations 15 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,313 of rural and urban foresters. 16 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:50,550 We are all well aware 17 00:00:50,550 --> 00:00:53,750 that climate change poses a threat to our forests 18 00:00:53,750 --> 00:00:55,310 to say the least. 19 00:00:55,310 --> 00:00:57,150 Here in the Northeast, it's showing up 20 00:00:57,150 --> 00:00:58,910 in our warmer winters 21 00:00:58,910 --> 00:01:01,070 and more frequent extreme storms. 22 00:01:01,070 --> 00:01:03,090 And then there's related challenges. 23 00:01:03,090 --> 00:01:08,090 The more frequent invasions by non-native pests and plants. 24 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:12,010 These effects are compounding and unpredictable, 25 00:01:12,010 --> 00:01:13,130 and left unaddressed, 26 00:01:13,130 --> 00:01:16,760 we've seen that they can drastically impact the function 27 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:18,740 and form of our forests, 28 00:01:18,740 --> 00:01:21,490 sometimes even leading to forest loss 29 00:01:21,490 --> 00:01:24,530 as in the more dramatic pictures on this slide. 30 00:01:24,530 --> 00:01:28,243 But even in less severe situations, 31 00:01:29,170 --> 00:01:32,560 it's clear that in the face of these novel conditions, 32 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,670 forest managers can no longer rely 33 00:01:34,670 --> 00:01:36,060 on the management activities 34 00:01:36,060 --> 00:01:38,710 that were developed based on the conditions 35 00:01:38,710 --> 00:01:40,163 of the last century. 36 00:01:41,740 --> 00:01:44,070 Fortunately, there are a number of ways 37 00:01:44,070 --> 00:01:46,440 that foresters can adapt their management 38 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,700 or mitigate the negative impacts 39 00:01:49,700 --> 00:01:53,250 and take advantage of opportunities of climate change. 40 00:01:53,250 --> 00:01:56,040 The common framework that I'm sure most of you have seen 41 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,780 breaks these practices into three different categories 42 00:01:59,780 --> 00:02:00,910 according to their goals, 43 00:02:00,910 --> 00:02:03,720 whether they're meant to resist change, 44 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:05,640 increase resilience to change 45 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,920 or help our forests transition to new conditions 46 00:02:09,920 --> 00:02:12,260 in anticipation of change. 47 00:02:12,260 --> 00:02:14,180 And the idea is that we want a mix 48 00:02:14,180 --> 00:02:16,890 of all three strategies on the landscape 49 00:02:16,890 --> 00:02:21,310 because having diverse conditions helps us better respond 50 00:02:21,310 --> 00:02:24,040 to the variable and unpredictable ways 51 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,190 that climate change will play out across landscape. 52 00:02:27,190 --> 00:02:29,160 But this begs the questions, 53 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,610 how are these three strategies represented 54 00:02:31,610 --> 00:02:32,690 on the landscape? 55 00:02:32,690 --> 00:02:34,230 Do we have that mix? 56 00:02:34,230 --> 00:02:37,610 And then what limits or facilitates their adoption? 57 00:02:37,610 --> 00:02:38,963 How do we get there? 58 00:02:39,870 --> 00:02:42,740 These are the questions that are behind the research 59 00:02:42,740 --> 00:02:43,940 I'll be presenting today. 60 00:02:43,940 --> 00:02:46,945 But we broke it down even a little further. 61 00:02:46,945 --> 00:02:50,110 I will be addressing what adaptation practices 62 00:02:50,110 --> 00:02:53,580 are utilized by Northeastern foresters? 63 00:02:53,580 --> 00:02:56,820 What adaptation strategies do these practices represent? 64 00:02:56,820 --> 00:02:59,780 How do they sort into those three buckets? 65 00:02:59,780 --> 00:03:02,070 What factors influence foresters' use 66 00:03:02,070 --> 00:03:04,500 of different practices and strategies? 67 00:03:04,500 --> 00:03:06,170 And I'm going from there, 68 00:03:06,170 --> 00:03:08,100 how can foresters be supported 69 00:03:08,100 --> 00:03:09,960 in advancing their adaptation? 70 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:13,340 Both deepening the practices they already use 71 00:03:13,340 --> 00:03:16,570 and perhaps expanding that toolbox. 72 00:03:16,570 --> 00:03:18,470 And then finally, I want to note 73 00:03:18,470 --> 00:03:20,740 that I am asking these questions 74 00:03:20,740 --> 00:03:23,140 at both urban and rural foresters. 75 00:03:23,140 --> 00:03:25,440 There are a umber of studies around the world 76 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,310 that ask similar questions of rural foresters 77 00:03:28,310 --> 00:03:29,870 but very, very few have looked 78 00:03:29,870 --> 00:03:32,550 at urban foresters' adaptation. 79 00:03:32,550 --> 00:03:35,700 But given how vital urban forests are 80 00:03:35,700 --> 00:03:38,440 to the wider health and connectivity 81 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:39,920 of our region's forests 82 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:41,500 and our region's people, 83 00:03:41,500 --> 00:03:42,890 we thought it was important 84 00:03:42,890 --> 00:03:46,773 to include urban foresters' perspective in this work. 85 00:03:48,210 --> 00:03:51,210 So how did I find out what the foresters are up to? 86 00:03:51,210 --> 00:03:53,550 Well, I conducted in-depth interviews 87 00:03:53,550 --> 00:03:55,940 with 17 rural foresters 88 00:03:55,940 --> 00:04:00,030 and 15 urban foresters across New England and New York. 89 00:04:00,030 --> 00:04:01,862 For this study, we define rural foresters 90 00:04:01,862 --> 00:04:05,100 as people who are making silvicultural decisions 91 00:04:05,100 --> 00:04:08,140 for forested land in rural areas. 92 00:04:08,140 --> 00:04:10,340 So what people usually think of 93 00:04:10,340 --> 00:04:12,340 when they hear forester. 94 00:04:12,340 --> 00:04:14,590 And urban foresters were folks 95 00:04:14,590 --> 00:04:16,410 who made management-level decisions 96 00:04:16,410 --> 00:04:19,780 for naturally forested land in urban areas, 97 00:04:19,780 --> 00:04:22,750 so places like Centennial Woods in Burlington 98 00:04:22,750 --> 00:04:25,960 or Central Park in New York City. 99 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,640 And these folks didn't necessarily 100 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,410 make silvicultural decisions 101 00:04:29,410 --> 00:04:31,610 but they were in charge of the ecology 102 00:04:31,610 --> 00:04:34,423 and the adaptation of the forests. 103 00:04:35,390 --> 00:04:37,680 My interviews were transcribed 104 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,370 and then my co-author and advisor, 105 00:04:39,370 --> 00:04:42,960 Rachel Schattman and I read through the interviews closely, 106 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:44,780 pulling out major themes. 107 00:04:44,780 --> 00:04:47,710 And I have been conducting further analysis 108 00:04:47,710 --> 00:04:49,163 on those themes. 109 00:04:50,150 --> 00:04:53,160 So this slide is about to get a little bit crazy. 110 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:54,713 We'll try to take it slowly. 111 00:04:55,750 --> 00:04:57,720 But in my analysis of those themes, 112 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,270 I saw four major categories emerge 113 00:05:00,270 --> 00:05:04,560 for the challenges and responses of participants. 114 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,350 First, there are the environmental challenges, 115 00:05:07,350 --> 00:05:09,020 those climate change stressors 116 00:05:09,020 --> 00:05:12,140 that foresters are responding to. 117 00:05:12,140 --> 00:05:14,460 And then there are the ways that they are responding, 118 00:05:14,460 --> 00:05:17,663 the adaptations that are showing up in their management. 119 00:05:18,550 --> 00:05:21,220 But then there are these other challenges often. 120 00:05:21,220 --> 00:05:23,200 Social and economic challenges 121 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,840 that foresters saw were acting as barriers 122 00:05:26,840 --> 00:05:28,640 to their ability to adapt 123 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,310 and then finally, sometimes foresters spoke 124 00:05:31,310 --> 00:05:34,900 about ways around those barriers or solutions. 125 00:05:34,900 --> 00:05:37,049 I made this figure to really look 126 00:05:37,049 --> 00:05:40,090 at what practices were common among foresters, 127 00:05:40,090 --> 00:05:42,560 and look at the connections between these categories, 128 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,410 how things are playing out. 129 00:05:44,410 --> 00:05:46,790 And the gray lines represent connections 130 00:05:46,790 --> 00:05:51,160 that foresters made in the interviews. 131 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,860 And the width of the line represents the number 132 00:05:53,860 --> 00:05:55,630 of foresters who made that connection. 133 00:05:55,630 --> 00:05:59,948 So for example, this thick gray bar here shows 134 00:05:59,948 --> 00:06:03,780 that 10 foresters said that they were redesigning access, 135 00:06:03,780 --> 00:06:06,800 doing things like upgrading culverts and bridges 136 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,970 in response to extreme weather events, 137 00:06:08,970 --> 00:06:10,893 more frequent extreme storms. 138 00:06:11,830 --> 00:06:14,270 But if you follow through to this thin line here, 139 00:06:14,270 --> 00:06:16,470 this shows that there's only one forester 140 00:06:16,470 --> 00:06:18,510 who said that market conditions were acting 141 00:06:18,510 --> 00:06:22,810 as a barrier to their ability to redesign access. 142 00:06:22,810 --> 00:06:24,410 So hopefully that makes sense. 143 00:06:24,410 --> 00:06:26,990 I know that there's a lot going on in this diagram. 144 00:06:26,990 --> 00:06:29,020 I'm just going to focus on some 145 00:06:29,020 --> 00:06:30,620 of the major patterns that I saw 146 00:06:30,620 --> 00:06:31,580 from looking at this 147 00:06:31,580 --> 00:06:35,290 and from getting further detail in the interviews. 148 00:06:35,290 --> 00:06:38,060 And first of all, I wanna say that foresters, 149 00:06:38,060 --> 00:06:39,850 these are just the rural participants. 150 00:06:39,850 --> 00:06:41,700 And they're responding to an array 151 00:06:41,700 --> 00:06:43,820 of environmental challenges. 152 00:06:43,820 --> 00:06:46,670 But importantly, they're responding to the stressors 153 00:06:46,670 --> 00:06:49,170 that are impacting their forests now 154 00:06:49,170 --> 00:06:51,330 and they're trying to mitigate those stressors. 155 00:06:51,330 --> 00:06:54,470 So they're doing things like upgrading roads 156 00:06:54,470 --> 00:06:57,320 and equipment in response to warmer winters 157 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,340 and extreme storms. 158 00:06:59,340 --> 00:07:03,200 They are very commonly utilizing invasive plant management 159 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,260 to resist invasive plants 160 00:07:05,260 --> 00:07:08,640 and then they're changing their silvicultural prescriptions 161 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:13,390 to decrease the stress of beech and brows. 162 00:07:13,390 --> 00:07:17,472 When rural foresters are thinking about the future, 163 00:07:17,472 --> 00:07:19,080 what they're responding to really 164 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:20,810 is the uncertainty of the future, 165 00:07:20,810 --> 00:07:23,510 uncertainty around future weather conditions 166 00:07:23,510 --> 00:07:27,650 and future outbreaks of pests and pathogens. 167 00:07:27,650 --> 00:07:28,800 And again, what they're doing 168 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,140 is upgrading their silvicultural prescriptions 169 00:07:32,140 --> 00:07:34,010 to really emphasize diversity. 170 00:07:34,010 --> 00:07:36,180 And that's species diversity, age class 171 00:07:36,180 --> 00:07:38,190 and structural diversity 172 00:07:38,190 --> 00:07:41,730 on the stand and landscape level. 173 00:07:41,730 --> 00:07:45,200 And this was the single most common practice 174 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:49,143 among rural participants' adaptation practice. 175 00:07:50,410 --> 00:07:51,850 In terms of barriers, 176 00:07:51,850 --> 00:07:54,250 public perception was a huge theme. 177 00:07:54,250 --> 00:07:55,900 It came up again and again. 178 00:07:55,900 --> 00:07:59,620 And this captures both foresters' concern 179 00:07:59,620 --> 00:08:04,100 around the regional growing opposition to cutting trees 180 00:08:04,100 --> 00:08:05,310 and active management, 181 00:08:05,310 --> 00:08:09,710 which really forms a barrier to silvicultural prescriptions, 182 00:08:09,710 --> 00:08:13,160 as well as general land owner apathy, 183 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:17,910 not seeing climate change as something worth paying for 184 00:08:17,910 --> 00:08:20,200 through these adaptation practices. 185 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,570 And this really relates to the other major barriers 186 00:08:22,570 --> 00:08:24,100 of economics and markets. 187 00:08:24,100 --> 00:08:27,493 A lot of the adaptation practices are expensive. 188 00:08:27,493 --> 00:08:30,910 And given the general poor markets 189 00:08:30,910 --> 00:08:32,850 and unpredictable markets, 190 00:08:32,850 --> 00:08:35,483 it is harder to justify the investment. 191 00:08:36,680 --> 00:08:38,340 Regarding the solutions to barriers, 192 00:08:38,340 --> 00:08:41,470 I mostly wanna point out that it is far outweighed 193 00:08:41,470 --> 00:08:43,680 by the barriers column. 194 00:08:43,680 --> 00:08:44,870 But I also wanted to note 195 00:08:44,870 --> 00:08:47,130 that a number of participants spoke 196 00:08:47,130 --> 00:08:49,620 about the need to engage with the public, 197 00:08:49,620 --> 00:08:51,400 especially to adjust that barrier 198 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,690 of public perception. 199 00:08:53,690 --> 00:08:56,400 But far fewer of the participants actually went out 200 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:58,050 of their way to do so. 201 00:08:58,050 --> 00:09:01,984 More often, they requested more tools 202 00:09:01,984 --> 00:09:04,293 to better engage the public. 203 00:09:05,870 --> 00:09:08,370 All right, so this is the same idea 204 00:09:08,370 --> 00:09:09,970 but for the rural participants. 205 00:09:09,970 --> 00:09:13,270 And a lot of the common patterns were the same 206 00:09:13,270 --> 00:09:14,560 for urban and rural. 207 00:09:14,560 --> 00:09:18,090 So I'm mostly going to point out the differences. 208 00:09:18,090 --> 00:09:20,660 Again, urban participants are responding 209 00:09:20,660 --> 00:09:22,740 by resisting those stressors 210 00:09:22,740 --> 00:09:24,040 that they're already feeling: 211 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:28,240 invasive plants, more droughts, pests and pathogens. 212 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,210 And then they're emphasizing diversity 213 00:09:30,210 --> 00:09:33,210 in the face of the uncertainty of future weather 214 00:09:33,210 --> 00:09:35,040 and pest and pathogen conditions. 215 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,920 But whereas rural foresters 216 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,100 changed the silvicultural prescriptions 217 00:09:40,100 --> 00:09:43,780 and the regeneration conditions 218 00:09:43,780 --> 00:09:45,400 to increase diversity, 219 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,574 urban foresters are really planting trees, 220 00:09:48,574 --> 00:09:51,060 and again, they're planting for species 221 00:09:51,060 --> 00:09:52,993 and age diversity. 222 00:09:54,290 --> 00:09:57,050 The big barriers for urban participants 223 00:09:57,050 --> 00:09:58,500 are labor and economics. 224 00:09:58,500 --> 00:10:02,365 That's a lack of human and financial resources. 225 00:10:02,365 --> 00:10:04,830 And we saw this as tied to the fact 226 00:10:04,830 --> 00:10:07,070 that many of the urban participants 227 00:10:07,070 --> 00:10:08,770 were municipally employed, 228 00:10:08,770 --> 00:10:12,110 and a lot of municipalities have tight budgets 229 00:10:12,110 --> 00:10:14,190 and urban forest management 230 00:10:14,190 --> 00:10:17,750 is historically very under funded. 231 00:10:17,750 --> 00:10:19,470 But on a lighter note, 232 00:10:19,470 --> 00:10:22,730 a greater number of the urban participants spoke 233 00:10:22,730 --> 00:10:25,270 about finding ways around those barriers, 234 00:10:25,270 --> 00:10:27,810 especially by successfully engaging 235 00:10:27,810 --> 00:10:29,800 with the public and collaborating. 236 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:31,840 That was with other municipal departments 237 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,920 or local non-profit organizations. 238 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,170 And in fact, many of the participants 239 00:10:38,170 --> 00:10:40,060 even named these elements 240 00:10:40,060 --> 00:10:41,810 as being primary parts of their work 241 00:10:41,810 --> 00:10:43,943 as urban foresters. 242 00:10:46,380 --> 00:10:48,540 All right, so how does all this relate back 243 00:10:48,540 --> 00:10:50,020 to those three categories 244 00:10:50,020 --> 00:10:53,230 of resistance, resilience, transition? 245 00:10:53,230 --> 00:10:55,210 You may have gathered that both urban 246 00:10:55,210 --> 00:10:57,800 and rural foresters are primary engaging 247 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,880 in resistance and resilient strategies. 248 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:01,780 And so resistance 249 00:11:01,780 --> 00:11:03,780 were those things like redesigning access 250 00:11:03,780 --> 00:11:05,780 and invasive plant management, 251 00:11:05,780 --> 00:11:10,300 and when we really dug in to see why foresters 252 00:11:10,300 --> 00:11:15,300 are utilizing these adaptation practices more than others, 253 00:11:15,430 --> 00:11:17,040 we saw two things for resistance. 254 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,750 One, these were often in response 255 00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,740 to stressors that foresters are already feeling. 256 00:11:22,740 --> 00:11:24,170 They don't require faith 257 00:11:24,170 --> 00:11:28,290 in any specific future climate change outcome. 258 00:11:28,290 --> 00:11:31,630 And then second, these practices often involved activities 259 00:11:31,630 --> 00:11:34,760 that were already a big part of the manager's toolbox, 260 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:36,920 things that were really familiar to them. 261 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,510 In the words of a manager on conservation land 262 00:11:40,510 --> 00:11:42,157 in this region. 263 00:11:42,157 --> 00:11:44,830 "Adaptation is not really necessarily changing everything 264 00:11:44,830 --> 00:11:46,170 you do on the ground. 265 00:11:46,170 --> 00:11:48,630 You might make some slight adjustments to things. 266 00:11:48,630 --> 00:11:50,700 But the things that you're doing that are appropriate 267 00:11:50,700 --> 00:11:53,930 for good management also are good for climate." 268 00:11:53,930 --> 00:11:55,660 And this is a general sentiment 269 00:11:55,660 --> 00:11:59,480 that foresters were happy to engage 270 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,250 in adaptation practices 271 00:12:01,250 --> 00:12:04,437 that they already saw as part of good management, 272 00:12:04,437 --> 00:12:05,837 and they're already used to. 273 00:12:07,290 --> 00:12:09,550 Resilience practices, those were the things 274 00:12:09,550 --> 00:12:11,810 like harvesting and planting for species 275 00:12:11,810 --> 00:12:13,483 and structural diversity. 276 00:12:15,010 --> 00:12:17,960 For these, foresters were looking to the future 277 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,300 but again, they weren't placing any bets 278 00:12:21,300 --> 00:12:22,950 on a specific future outcome. 279 00:12:22,950 --> 00:12:26,200 Instead, they saw themselves as spreading that risk. 280 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,850 And again, I have a quote that really sums that up. 281 00:12:28,850 --> 00:12:31,690 This one is from a manager 282 00:12:31,690 --> 00:12:34,167 on national forest land who said, 283 00:12:34,167 --> 00:12:35,620 "What we're doing differently, 284 00:12:35,620 --> 00:12:37,440 we're emphasizing diversity. 285 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:38,630 We're just hedging our bets 286 00:12:38,630 --> 00:12:40,840 because there's all this stuff going on. 287 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,630 Some of it we understand fairly well 288 00:12:42,630 --> 00:12:44,040 what's happening and why 289 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,080 but then there's things that we have no idea, 290 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,480 we've never even heard of." 291 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:52,090 So here foresters used phrases like hedging our bets 292 00:12:52,090 --> 00:12:54,060 or diversifying portfolios, 293 00:12:54,060 --> 00:12:56,380 again really spreading the risk. 294 00:12:56,380 --> 00:12:58,580 And so what about transition strategies? 295 00:12:58,580 --> 00:13:02,170 Which do bet on a specific future outcome, 296 00:13:02,170 --> 00:13:04,003 at least more than these other two. 297 00:13:05,100 --> 00:13:07,380 Assisted migration is really the poster child 298 00:13:07,380 --> 00:13:09,780 for transition, especially in the Northeast. 299 00:13:09,780 --> 00:13:11,210 And that's planning species 300 00:13:11,210 --> 00:13:13,450 that are not already present in our forests 301 00:13:13,450 --> 00:13:14,940 but are predicted to move North 302 00:13:14,940 --> 00:13:16,450 with the changing climate. 303 00:13:16,450 --> 00:13:18,390 And I think it's a good practice 304 00:13:18,390 --> 00:13:21,000 to look at to get a general feeling 305 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,090 of how foresters are thinking about the future. 306 00:13:24,090 --> 00:13:27,040 And assisted migration is really rare 307 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:28,910 among the rural participants 308 00:13:28,910 --> 00:13:31,380 and the general feeling is we're not ready 309 00:13:31,380 --> 00:13:32,540 to go there yet. 310 00:13:32,540 --> 00:13:34,610 The tree species that are on site right now 311 00:13:34,610 --> 00:13:36,170 are not thriving, 312 00:13:36,170 --> 00:13:38,530 so we're not going to jump that gun too much. 313 00:13:38,530 --> 00:13:42,810 In other words, the change isn't great enough yet 314 00:13:42,810 --> 00:13:43,960 or fast enough yet 315 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,030 to warrant doing something as wacky 316 00:13:46,030 --> 00:13:48,837 as planting trees in New England. 317 00:13:48,837 --> 00:13:51,457 Things are different for urban foresters 318 00:13:51,457 --> 00:13:52,640 where planting trees 319 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,740 is already more common to them, more familiar. 320 00:13:55,740 --> 00:13:58,210 And we saw that urban foresters are beginning 321 00:13:58,210 --> 00:14:00,240 to plant things that are just outside 322 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:01,520 of their climate zone. 323 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,173 So in the words of one city forester, 324 00:14:04,173 --> 00:14:06,420 "The one that's changed has really just been 325 00:14:06,420 --> 00:14:07,920 how we view those species. 326 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:09,470 What used to be those very hard 327 00:14:09,470 --> 00:14:12,090 and fast and rigid, no, that's from down south 328 00:14:12,090 --> 00:14:14,340 or no, that's from a different climate zone. 329 00:14:14,340 --> 00:14:17,670 We just have to kind of broaden our view a little bit." 330 00:14:17,670 --> 00:14:20,090 Other urban foresters put this in terms 331 00:14:20,090 --> 00:14:21,880 of pushing the envelope a little bit 332 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,633 and what I call this is transition light. 333 00:14:25,750 --> 00:14:28,250 It's not really going too far out of their range 334 00:14:28,250 --> 00:14:31,343 but they are engaging in assisted migration. 335 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:33,920 Of course, the exception to the rule 336 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:34,900 is what really makes it. 337 00:14:34,900 --> 00:14:38,050 So I want to quickly talk about there were two foresters, 338 00:14:38,050 --> 00:14:39,200 one urban and rural 339 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,450 who really leaned into assisted migration 340 00:14:41,450 --> 00:14:44,020 and were planning things from Georgia. 341 00:14:44,020 --> 00:14:45,470 And there were two things that stood out 342 00:14:45,470 --> 00:14:46,640 about these foresters. 343 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,340 One, on portions of the forest they managed, 344 00:14:50,340 --> 00:14:53,191 they had experienced climate change impacts 345 00:14:53,191 --> 00:14:55,260 to the point where those forests 346 00:14:55,260 --> 00:14:58,810 were at the point of collapse. 347 00:14:58,810 --> 00:14:59,643 Sorry. 348 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,450 So when rural foresters talk 349 00:15:02,450 --> 00:15:04,850 about not being ready to go there yet, 350 00:15:04,850 --> 00:15:08,320 it seems like perhaps these two had reached that yet. 351 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,560 And the second thing is that both of these foresters 352 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:15,200 had engaged in climate change adaptation workshops 353 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,920 before they experimented with assisted migration. 354 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:21,730 And I also quickly wanna say 355 00:15:21,730 --> 00:15:23,730 that there were a couple of rural foresters 356 00:15:23,730 --> 00:15:26,720 who were experimenting with under planting things, 357 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:27,810 like pine and oak, 358 00:15:27,810 --> 00:15:29,610 which are present on the landscape 359 00:15:29,610 --> 00:15:33,800 but they wanted to see more of in light of climate change. 360 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,560 And these foresters were the ones 361 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,320 with the greatest access to financial resources, 362 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,653 which we saw as mitigating some of the risk of transition. 363 00:15:42,620 --> 00:15:44,313 So quickly to sum it up, 364 00:15:45,700 --> 00:15:49,930 I found in my work that adaptation is common, all right? 365 00:15:49,930 --> 00:15:51,920 Foresters are mainly employing assistance 366 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:53,390 and resilient strategies 367 00:15:53,390 --> 00:15:57,700 and transition is far less common in the Northeast. 368 00:15:57,700 --> 00:16:00,110 And what we think we're seeing 369 00:16:00,110 --> 00:16:02,320 is that part of these avoidance of transition 370 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,363 is a risk management strategy. 371 00:16:05,210 --> 00:16:08,880 Transition just requires a little too much faith 372 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:10,470 in a specific future outcome 373 00:16:10,470 --> 00:16:12,880 and it's hard when weather conditions 374 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,140 are still so variable 375 00:16:15,140 --> 00:16:16,860 and so much isn't certain. 376 00:16:16,860 --> 00:16:19,310 And then especially for rural foresters, 377 00:16:19,310 --> 00:16:21,240 it requires engaging in practices 378 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:23,630 that are far less common and unfamiliar. 379 00:16:23,630 --> 00:16:24,803 Things like planting. 380 00:16:25,820 --> 00:16:28,594 We did see that the foresters who engaged in transition 381 00:16:28,594 --> 00:16:32,013 had reached this point of collapse with their forest, 382 00:16:32,013 --> 00:16:34,980 and as climate change progresses, 383 00:16:34,980 --> 00:16:38,110 we think more foresters and forests 384 00:16:38,110 --> 00:16:39,297 will reach that point as well, 385 00:16:39,297 --> 00:16:42,000 and transition might become more common. 386 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:43,620 But if we would like to see that mix 387 00:16:43,620 --> 00:16:46,570 of adaptation strategies in advance 388 00:16:46,570 --> 00:16:48,550 of reaching these points of collapse, 389 00:16:48,550 --> 00:16:50,910 we recommend more cost share programs 390 00:16:50,910 --> 00:16:52,603 to mitigate that financial risk. 391 00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:56,760 Perhaps framing having a mix of adaptation strategies 392 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,760 in the same terms as having a mix of species. 393 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,850 Throwing in a little transition in there 394 00:17:01,850 --> 00:17:03,643 to help spread the risk. 395 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,400 Those trainings seem to be working. 396 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,230 It worked for the two foresters engaged in transition, 397 00:17:09,230 --> 00:17:10,990 and they're widely available 398 00:17:10,990 --> 00:17:13,460 but keep it up. 399 00:17:13,460 --> 00:17:15,180 And then finally, I just wanted to note 400 00:17:15,180 --> 00:17:18,550 that again that a number of rural foresters called 401 00:17:18,550 --> 00:17:20,030 for more communication tools 402 00:17:20,030 --> 00:17:22,150 to help them adjust those issues 403 00:17:22,150 --> 00:17:23,966 of public perception. 404 00:17:23,966 --> 00:17:25,730 And I know I'm over my time 405 00:17:25,730 --> 00:17:27,700 but I wanna thank my advisors 406 00:17:27,700 --> 00:17:29,810 and co-authors, Rachel Schattman at UMaine, 407 00:17:29,810 --> 00:17:31,120 Tony D'Amato at UVM 408 00:17:31,120 --> 00:17:33,510 and Todd Ontl with the Northern Institute 409 00:17:33,510 --> 00:17:35,280 of Applied Climate Science. 410 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:36,640 Thanks to my committee members 411 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,327 and my two labs, and all of the participants 412 00:17:39,327 --> 00:17:41,230 who were so generous with their thoughts 413 00:17:41,230 --> 00:17:42,063 and their time.